Study: Sell HDIL when below 200 SMA and RSI is overbought

home > technical-strategy > hdil > 62

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell HDIL when below 200 SMA and RSI is overbought" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell HDIL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.56. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
HDIL Performance, Profit Factor:0.564

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017215 Mar 2017 (-2.31%), 21 Mar 2017 (-1.43%)
2016105 Jan 2016 (7.95%)
2015131 Dec 2015 (-3.68%)
2012617 Jan 2012 (-2.53%), 19 Jan 2012 (-0.36%), 25 Jan 2012 (3.08%), 08 Feb 2012 (-5.4%), 09 Feb 2012 (-3.66%), 14 Feb 2012 (-5.32%)
2011106 Apr 2011 (7.8%)
2010121 Jul 2010 (6.18%)
2009702 Apr 2009 (-6.56%), 06 Apr 2009 (-6.4%), 08 Apr 2009 (-6.72%), 13 Apr 2009 (-6.49%), 15 Apr 2009 (-6.74%), 23 Apr 2009 (-9.31%), 27 Apr 2009 (0.43%)
2008218 Dec 2008 (-9.42%), 19 Dec 2008 (17.57%)

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play