Study: Buy HEXAWARE when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy HEXAWARE when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy HEXAWARE at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-41739.0547173036.175960.5917377.93-4768.97-14608.71.250.71-0.031-888.06
2-23156.1947212644.688154.129834.68-7476.62-24450.551.090.88-0.011-492.68
3-13097.3947182938.39921.9446749.23-6610.08-17958.181.50.93-0.0059-278.67
414159.3547192840.4313256.8755727.55-8490.04-43855.931.561.060.0046301.26
5-7510.7747182938.314459.4644736.84-9233.83-49206.351.570.97-0.0024-159.8
675274.0847192840.4317559.2580082.14-9226.85-37698.411.91.290.021601.58
745623.9747222546.8116720.8760193.61-12889.41-46825.41.31.140.012970.72
812172247232448.9417890.0972103.26-12072.93-40873.021.481.420.0312589.83
913036147272057.4514946.1269932.53-13659.21-41269.841.091.480.0342773.64
1011720247222546.8118137.8767585.8-11273.24-40873.021.611.420.032493.66
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil37.6811336356164028.5731922.9752562.48-9935.11-19978.743.211.290.0252024.34
atrnil25.7575299.3560223836.6720556.0335041.65-9919.3-19978.742.071.20.021254.99
atrtrail34.2630281.1658184031.0320694.5952562.48-8555.53-19489.982.421.090.0077522.09
atrtrail23.89-24238.5261214034.4315442.9635041.65-8713.52-19489.981.770.93-0.0072-397.35
atrtrail-14.63-59647.9457174029.8216621.9750293.6-8555.53-19489.981.940.83-0.018-1046.46

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.29. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 28.57%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.01%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.025, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
HEXAWARE Performance, Profit Factor:1.29

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018524 Jan 2018 (-2.88%), 25 Jan 2018 (-3.01%), 25 May 2018 (-4.0%), 10 Sep 2018 (-3.87%), 09 Nov 2018 (-5.27%)
2016329 Jan 2016 (-4.03%), 28 Sep 2016 (-2.55%), 19 Oct 2016 (8.6%)
2015326 Mar 2015 (11.48%), 20 May 2015 (-4.43%), 09 Sep 2015 (-5.69%)
2014123 May 2014 (14.57%)
2013501 Jan 2013 (-3.8%), 08 Feb 2013 (-4.56%), 03 Sep 2013 (-3.73%), 22 Oct 2013 (-1.4%), 10 Dec 2013 (-3.98%)
2012529 Feb 2012 (-4.5%), 26 Jul 2012 (-3.61%), 26 Oct 2012 (-3.39%), 29 Oct 2012 (-3.56%), 27 Nov 2012 (-3.76%)
2011117 Feb 2011 (-5.61%)
2010403 Mar 2010 (-5.19%), 05 Apr 2010 (-4.39%), 12 Apr 2010 (12.54%), 06 Sep 2010 (-3.61%)
2009619 Mar 2009 (-9.74%), 07 May 2009 (-7.16%), 08 May 2009 (-7.7%), 18 May 2009 (-7.61%), 19 May 2009 (26.28%), 25 Aug 2009 (-6.44%)
2008304 Feb 2008 (-8.34%), 18 Feb 2008 (22.22%), 20 Oct 2008 (-9.99%)
2007609 Feb 2007 (-4.75%), 13 Mar 2007 (-4.56%), 14 Mar 2007 (14.37%), 14 Aug 2007 (-5.33%), 20 Nov 2007 (-5.06%), 07 Dec 2007 (-6.74%)
2006303 Feb 2006 (-4.8%), 06 Mar 2006 (12.05%), 15 Jun 2006 (22.07%)
2005227 Jan 2005 (15.92%), 02 Aug 2005 (-4.77%)
2004321 Jun 2004 (-4.95%), 22 Jun 2004 (15.83%), 11 Aug 2004 (10.93%)
2003607 Jan 2003 (15.13%), 02 May 2003 (19.52%), 10 Jul 2003 (-4.81%), 11 Jul 2003 (-5.14%), 24 Jul 2003 (15.97%), 20 Aug 2003 (17.88%)



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