Study: Buy HINDALCO when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy HINDALCO when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy HINDALCO at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
169286.7339221756.415328.9521783.74-2820.59-7301.991.892.440.0651776.58
250987.3639211853.856369.1715662.08-4598.06-16183.591.391.620.0381307.37
360094.9439201951.288388.1926080.11-5666.78-12934.951.481.560.0341540.9
414626539231658.9710853.0244177.4-6459.68-12261.51.682.420.0653750.37
522609439251464.112720.5863690.99-6565.77-14139.691.943.460.0825797.27
623567239231658.9714804.2962761.09-6551.69-13685.412.263.250.0816042.86
723236839261366.6713354.8657324.75-8835.29-17681.221.513.020.0795958.14
824553339251464.114706.2753075.82-8723.13-26912.441.693.010.0766295.72
920132239201951.2816787.4855064.38-7075.14-23963.132.372.50.0645162.1
1022717539231658.9715571.1962352.01-8185.12-21136.711.92.730.0715825.01

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 5 trading days. Profit factor is 3.46. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 64.1%, which is good. Average return per trade is 2.9%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.082, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
HINDALCO Performance, X=5, Profit Factor:3.46

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018101 Nov 2018 (3.26%)
2017118 Dec 2017 (7.61%)
2016412 Apr 2016 (9.89%), 12 Jul 2016 (2.03%), 08 Aug 2016 (3.69%), 30 Aug 2016 (-1.87%)
2014428 Feb 2014 (18.22%), 19 May 2014 (-3.26%), 05 Jun 2014 (-0.35%), 16 Jul 2014 (6.28%)
2013126 Sep 2013 (0.85%)
2012127 Nov 2012 (7.69%)
2010417 Feb 2010 (1.47%), 18 Aug 2010 (-7.07%), 06 Sep 2010 (4.19%), 05 Nov 2010 (-4.02%)
2009106 May 2009 (12.15%)
2008115 Feb 2008 (7.71%)
2007106 Jun 2007 (7.73%)
2004411 Feb 2004 (-3.67%), 10 Aug 2004 (0.49%), 16 Sep 2004 (1.99%), 05 Nov 2004 (0.94%)
2003704 Mar 2003 (-3.15%), 19 May 2003 (5.6%), 11 Jun 2003 (5.94%), 11 Jul 2003 (2.86%), 03 Nov 2003 (2.99%), 02 Dec 2003 (-1.07%), 31 Dec 2003 (3.65%)
2002225 Jan 2002 (0.9%), 20 Mar 2002 (-2.37%)
2001119 Jan 2001 (-6.36%)
2000102 Aug 2000 (-4.93%)
1999305 Jul 1999 (31.85%), 16 Aug 1999 (-1.08%), 11 Nov 1999 (-6.62%)
1998207 Apr 1998 (9.01%), 18 Jun 1998 (-0.13%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1522609439251464.112720.5863690.99-6565.77-14139.691.943.460.0825797.27
atrnil37.3810665445162935.5621423.9738226.31-8142.41-15856.612.631.450.0332370.08
atrtrail-1545879.8546172936.9613336.352301.4-6235.77-10575.312.141.250.017997.39
atrnil24.854103.7649193038.7815228.9131713.21-7841.51-12357.661.941.230.0191104.16
atrtrail34.5229680.0546172936.9612383.3729421.84-6235.77-10575.311.991.160.012645.22
atrtrail23.824057.9349193038.7811648.5925484.2-6575.51-12357.661.771.120.0099490.98

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 3.46. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 64.1%, which is good. Average return per trade is 2.9%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.082, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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