Study: Buy HINDALCO when RSI is above 50 and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy HINDALCO when RSI is above 50 and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy HINDALCO at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
119213.951711664.715641.3217768.84-7140.09-9722.220.791.450.0311130.23
217279.631711664.714359.529600-5112.52-11332.850.851.560.0371016.45
3-29052.47179852.945118.859816.22-9390.27-16175.620.550.61-0.041-1708.97
4-66274.38178947.065060.7711070.27-11862.28-26686.510.430.38-0.076-3898.49
5-72102.731771041.185234.587556.4-10874.48-25099.210.480.34-0.087-4241.34
6-1159721761135.293189.615599.35-12282.68-32837.30.260.14-0.14-6821.87
7-1100741771041.183093.75777.88-13172.95-38095.240.230.16-0.12-6474.91
8-1053981761135.293657.46753.69-11576.6-33630.950.320.17-0.12-6199.89
9-1480011751229.413024.27230.23-13593.51-32440.480.220.093-0.17-8705.95
10-1664471741323.534306.525848.42-14128.68-27976.190.30.094-0.19-9790.99
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail23.1-68775.632151623.816703.1713137.69-6393.22-12161.31.050.33-0.1-3275.03
atrtrail33.19-75502.232151623.815357.8517393.81-6393.22-12161.30.840.26-0.11-3595.34
atrnil24.76-1176762131814.2911867.7113137.69-8515.52-14462.731.390.23-0.15-5603.63
atrtrail-13.35-75685.3420515254064.8210928.68-6400.63-12161.30.640.21-0.14-3784.27
atrnil35.76-126150212199.5216849.0817393.81-8413.06-14462.7320.21-0.16-6007.14

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.33. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
HINDALCO Performance, Profit Factor:0.328

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018101 Nov 2018 (1.42%)
2016129 Apr 2016 (-2.15%)
2013204 Jan 2013 (-1.4%), 11 Oct 2013 (-4.22%)
2009212 Jun 2009 (-6.08%), 15 Jun 2009 (-3.4%)
2008125 Apr 2008 (-0.5%)
2007127 Jul 2007 (-4.04%)
2006203 Jul 2006 (-5.14%), 23 Oct 2006 (1.12%)
2004106 Oct 2004 (-1.47%)
2003128 Apr 2003 (-0.56%)
2002226 Feb 2002 (-3.14%), 27 Feb 2002 (-3.5%)
2001221 Feb 2001 (-3.55%), 22 Feb 2001 (-3.79%)
2000101 Aug 2000 (1.85%)
1999119 May 1999 (-5.06%)
1997101 Apr 1997 (6.57%)
1996213 Feb 1996 (5.8%), 14 Feb 1996 (-3.14%)



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