Study: Buy HINDALCO when above 200 SMA and RSI is oversold

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy HINDALCO when above 200 SMA and RSI is oversold" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy HINDALCO at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
112516.5376185.713883.2510861.55-10782.97-10782.970.362.160.0611788.08
223765.6175271.436348.8814146.83-3989.39-7637.481.593.980.113395.09
37300.4975271.433594.8910191.08-5336.98-7912.120.671.680.041042.93
423767.5575271.435881.878179.68-2820.91-4180.892.095.210.153395.36
59476.8574357.145696.456581.35-4436.31-8006.531.281.710.0511353.84
61713.6673442.865289.8910603.29-3539-7116.911.491.120.0093244.81
73734.3273442.867611.1811666.11-4774.8-5466.551.591.20.016533.47
8-3976.1573442.863410.48409.51-3551.84-5759.390.960.72-0.026-568.02
9-9163.0875271.432209.853107.86-10106.17-12491.470.220.55-0.046-1309.01
10-71.1174357.148626.8717694.37-11526.19-19087.030.751-0.00018-10.16

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 4 trading days. Profit factor is 5.21. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 71.43%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.7%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
HINDALCO Performance, X=4, Profit Factor:5.21

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017101 Dec 2017 (0.79%)
2014214 Jan 2014 (2.47%), 25 Sep 2014 (4.09%)
2010124 May 2010 (3.64%)
1999127 Oct 1999 (3.72%)
1996226 Jun 1996 (-0.73%), 10 Jul 1996 (-2.09%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1423767.5575271.435881.878179.68-2820.91-4180.892.095.210.153395.36
atrnil36.45-18144.87112918.1824666.8430257.32-7497.62-11035.063.290.73-0.026-1649.53
atrnil25.73-34589.43112918.1816444.5620171.55-7497.62-11035.062.190.49-0.067-3144.49
atrtrail24.08-30907.15134930.773856.654948.29-5148.2-9972.020.750.33-0.1-2377.47
atrtrail34.08-30907.15134930.773856.654948.29-5148.2-9972.020.750.33-0.1-2377.47
atrtrail-14.08-30907.15134930.773856.654948.29-5148.2-9972.020.750.33-0.1-2377.47

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 5.21. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 71.43%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.7%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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