Study: Buy HINDUNILVR when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy HINDUNILVR when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy HINDUNILVR at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
15006.81881044.443015.585776.5-1911.79-5456.431.581.260.019278.16
2-4625.061812666.672648.146982.37-6067.13-17639.470.440.87-0.0088-256.95
3-7835.241810855.563659.877243.55-5554.24-9585.360.660.82-0.017-435.29
4-1902431810855.563372.88034.82-27996.39-1801560.120.15-0.051-10569.06
5-2054711881044.444243.3518547.04-23941.82-1806330.180.14-0.055-11415.08
6-2092721881044.445170.2417542.68-25063.44-1808340.210.17-0.055-11626.25
7-215296189950461718011.38-28538.82-1806890.160.16-0.057-11960.91
8-2077641871138.895315.9117944.43-22270.46-1807510.240.15-0.055-11542.43
9-2077261899504391.2719685.3-27471.94-1804430.160.16-0.055-11540.34
10-2161451851327.788476.9220756.61-19886.93-1797270.430.16-0.057-12008.08

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.26. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 44.44%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.14%, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.019, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-115006.81881044.443015.585776.5-1911.79-5456.431.581.260.019278.16
atrtrail26.22-2630.961871138.897313.5412532.57-4893.25-9802.761.490.95-0.0042-146.16
atrtrail36.61-24556.141861233.335372.8817090.91-4732.78-9802.761.140.57-0.045-1364.23
atrtrail-17.11-27353.431861233.334906.6614293.63-4732.78-9802.761.040.52-0.054-1519.63
atrnil28.17-43139.51841422.2211250.8112532.57-6295.91-11590.051.790.51-0.063-2396.64
atrnil39.67-66785.861821611.1116446.9517090.91-6229.98-11590.052.640.33-0.1-3710.33

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.26. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 44.44%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.14%, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.019, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
HINDUNILVR Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:1.26

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019103 Jun 2019 (-1.31%)
2017130 Mar 2017 (-0.81%)
2016112 Apr 2016 (2.89%)
2014105 Jun 2014 (1.56%)
2013127 May 2013 (-0.04%)
2011107 Jun 2011 (1.51%)
2010123 Jul 2010 (0.0%)
2009102 Jul 2009 (1.13%)
2007117 Sep 2007 (-0.63%)
2005117 Jun 2005 (-0.64%)
2004114 Dec 2004 (2.59%)
2003128 Jul 2003 (1.77%)
2001220 Apr 2001 (0.57%), 27 Jul 2001 (0.05%)
2000325 Feb 2000 (-2.73%), 29 May 2000 (-0.92%), 29 Jun 2000 (-1.79%)
1997127 Jan 1997 (-0.69%)



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