Study: Buy HINDUNILVR when above 200 SMA

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy HINDUNILVR when above 200 SMA" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy HINDUNILVR at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
152766.58553322603547.5516166.69-2922.85-7946.081.211.820.044959.39
212318955342161.825457.0223547.07-2969.03-10287.81.842.980.0782239.8
389459.9855352063.645200.3532589.36-4627.61-11968.951.121.970.0481626.55
412195355361965.456731.1131923.6-6335.09-17034.311.062.010.0562217.33
513203255352063.648036.0733015.01-7461.52-23325.161.081.880.0512400.59
617811555361965.458097.829670.39-5968.73-18344.771.362.570.0693238.45
719713555322358.189918.8139665.91-5229-26926.011.92.640.0663584.27
82072535533226010060.8338174.13-5670.64-19374.521.772.660.0683768.24
92280765533226010880.4541638.19-5953.59-26447.191.832.740.0694146.84
1022174455342161.8210498.6538857.67-6438.56-26117.971.632.640.0694031.71

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 2 trading days. Profit factor is 2.98. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 61.82%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.12%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.078, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
HINDUNILVR Performance, X=2, Profit Factor:2.98

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019206 Mar 2019 (0.11%), 09 Jul 2019 (-0.54%)
2018406 Feb 2018 (0.32%), 06 Mar 2018 (-0.0%), 03 Sep 2018 (-5.14%), 04 Oct 2018 (-0.93%)
2017129 Sep 2017 (2.01%)
2016126 Sep 2016 (-0.61%)
2015426 Mar 2015 (-0.44%), 30 Apr 2015 (3.38%), 03 Jun 2015 (-0.28%), 12 Aug 2015 (0.48%)
2014210 Oct 2014 (1.51%), 28 Oct 2014 (2.03%)
2013511 Jan 2013 (1.12%), 24 Jun 2013 (0.75%), 19 Aug 2013 (0.02%), 28 Oct 2013 (4.14%), 11 Nov 2013 (1.34%)
2012416 Jan 2012 (1.53%), 31 Jan 2012 (3.1%), 04 Jun 2012 (1.85%), 16 Nov 2012 (-0.15%)
2011125 Jan 2011 (-3.53%)
2010109 Dec 2010 (4.12%)
2009402 Mar 2009 (-1.61%), 10 Aug 2009 (-1.5%), 10 Nov 2009 (0.21%), 14 Dec 2009 (-1.4%)
2008226 May 2008 (3.07%), 13 Jun 2008 (4.23%)
2007117 Oct 2007 (-1.74%)
2006115 May 2006 (5.05%)
2005406 Jan 2005 (0.63%), 25 Feb 2005 (4.02%), 14 Mar 2005 (-2.1%), 27 Oct 2005 (-0.52%)
2004222 Jan 2004 (4.19%), 19 Feb 2004 (-4.22%)
2003222 Sep 2003 (6.08%), 28 Oct 2003 (-0.09%)
2002126 Mar 2002 (-2.04%)
1999426 Feb 1999 (11.77%), 26 Apr 1999 (-1.52%), 14 Sep 1999 (0.41%), 18 Oct 1999 (-1.82%)
1998218 Aug 1998 (3.01%), 05 Oct 1998 (8.58%)
1997421 Feb 1997 (0.93%), 26 May 1997 (1.68%), 22 Sep 1997 (2.8%), 28 Oct 1997 (2.18%)
1996319 Aug 1996 (2.71%), 03 Sep 1996 (3.4%), 04 Oct 1996 (-0.96%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1212318955342161.825457.0223547.07-2969.03-10287.81.842.980.0782239.8
atrtrail-16.14197808743737509995.3541477.3-4649.18-11737.872.152.150.0492673.09
atrtrail24.45109126743737507598.5317002.32-4649.18-11737.871.631.630.0411474.68
atrtrail35.16103595743737507449.0420688.64-4649.18-11737.871.61.60.0371399.93
atrnil26.3175572.6270294141.4310860.3317002.32-5838.46-11737.871.861.320.0261079.61
atrnil38.9480332.0965224333.8515337.1625014.87-5978.73-11737.872.571.310.0241235.88

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.98. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 61.82%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.12%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.078, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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