Study: Sell HINDZINC when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell HINDZINC when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell HINDZINC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-27078.331981142.113280.526324.11-4847.5-14115.870.680.49-0.056-1425.18
2-37955.651961331.584901.559444.44-5181.92-22513.680.950.44-0.06-1997.67
3-90076.541951426.328854.2122134.39-9596.26-22857.140.920.33-0.095-4740.87
4-75762.721981142.118162.8821343.87-12824.16-26861.940.640.46-0.07-3987.51
5-87425.171971236.848557.0422222.22-12277.04-30065.360.70.41-0.078-4601.32
6-1309861961331.586934.6513888.89-13276.48-57516.340.520.24-0.096-6894.02
7-1428901991047.375408.1811111.11-19156.39-60130.720.280.25-0.095-7520.54
8-1675051961331.5810630.922857.14-17791.6-58823.530.60.28-0.097-8816.08
9-1543701981142.119356.632000-20838.43-47058.820.450.33-0.088-8124.73
10-1690311981142.119688.2428571.43-22412.46-52066.430.430.31-0.093-8896.38

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 0.49. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-11-27078.331981142.113280.526324.11-4847.5-14115.870.680.49-0.056-1425.18
atrtrail23.75-99471.7220416208222.7812447.98-8272.68-19118.450.990.25-0.13-4973.59
atrtrail33.8-10798020416206095.649631.65-8272.68-19118.450.740.18-0.16-5399.02
atrtrail-13.8-10798020416206095.649631.65-8272.68-19118.450.740.18-0.16-5399.02
atrnil25.2-148392202181014592.4816736.98-9865.39-19118.451.480.16-0.2-7419.6
atrnil36.1-15869620119525105.4625105.46-9673.74-19118.452.60.14-0.2-7934.78

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.49. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
HINDZINC Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:0.492

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019210 Jul 2019 (-2.22%), 14 Aug 2019 (-0.93%)
2017118 May 2017 (-0.59%)
2013222 Feb 2013 (1.73%), 21 Mar 2013 (0.57%)
2012212 Jul 2012 (0.76%), 29 Aug 2012 (-0.61%)
2010205 Jul 2010 (-0.68%), 30 Sep 2010 (-2.76%)
2008113 Feb 2008 (-7.06%)
2007105 Mar 2007 (-1.06%)
2003105 Feb 2003 (-0.0%)
2001112 Nov 2001 (0.28%)
2000116 Jun 2000 (-3.92%)
1999118 Jan 1999 (1.14%)
1998124 Dec 1998 (-6.83%)
1997108 Dec 1997 (3.16%)
1996111 Mar 1996 (2.7%)
1995125 Apr 1995 (2.78%)



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