Study: Buy HINDZINC when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy HINDZINC when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy HINDZINC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1269934160877354.385573.1643786.98-2944.25-13856.811.892.260.0531687.09
2374802160798149.389350.3760355.03-4492.31-19399.542.082.030.0482342.51
31.16382e+07160758546.881618131.12997e+07-5856.21-50727.6527.6324.380.01872738.58
41.2163e+07160827851.251553361.20053e+07-7366.41-51143.4521.0922.170.01876018.73
51.21998e+07160867453.751486521.18871e+07-7896.18-50727.6518.8321.880.01876248.5
61.22028e+07160827851.251571701.19531e+07-8783.63-37837.8417.8918.810.01876267.53
71.28577e+071608080501701781.26119e+07-9456.11-45322.2518180.01880360.84
81.23691e+07160847652.51563871.20409e+07-10097.71-46569.6515.4917.120.01877306.85
91.25468e+07160857553.121570791.21241e+07-10732.41-48920.8614.6416.590.01878417.6
101.27938e+071608872551552261.23399e+07-12030.1-48920.8612.915.770.01879960.99

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 3 trading days. Profit factor is 24.38. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 46.88%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 36.37%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.018, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
HINDZINC Performance, X=3, Profit Factor:24.4

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019420 Feb 2019 (3.29%), 01 Apr 2019 (-0.12%), 26 Jun 2019 (1.52%), 09 Aug 2019 (-2.5%)
2018812 Feb 2018 (1.76%), 06 Apr 2018 (1.4%), 30 May 2018 (-2.95%), 10 Jul 2018 (-2.62%), 24 Jul 2018 (0.46%), 23 Aug 2018 (4.09%), 23 Oct 2018 (-0.45%), 15 Nov 2018 (-1.18%)
2017809 Jan 2017 (2.04%), 20 Mar 2017 (2.63%), 15 May 2017 (-4.71%), 30 May 2017 (-2.14%), 18 Aug 2017 (-2.72%), 04 Sep 2017 (2.71%), 05 Oct 2017 (-0.03%), 18 Dec 2017 (1.98%)
2016922 Jan 2016 (13.52%), 04 Mar 2016 (-2.13%), 31 Mar 2016 (1.72%), 26 Apr 2016 (-0.23%), 27 May 2016 (0.21%), 30 Jun 2016 (2.6%), 26 Sep 2016 (-0.24%), 25 Oct 2016 (-0.67%), 24 Nov 2016 (3.29%)
2015622 Jan 2015 (3.18%), 07 Apr 2015 (5.54%), 29 Apr 2015 (6.67%), 16 Jul 2015 (1.0%), 03 Sep 2015 (-2.14%), 04 Dec 2015 (-3.05%)
2014820 Jan 2014 (-0.04%), 05 Mar 2014 (-1.79%), 15 May 2014 (16.35%), 22 Jul 2014 (-3.27%), 19 Aug 2014 (-0.92%), 20 Oct 2014 (0.43%), 24 Nov 2014 (-3.17%), 30 Dec 2014 (2.48%)
20131103 Jan 2013 (-0.74%), 20 Feb 2013 (-5.02%), 06 Mar 2013 (-0.54%), 26 Mar 2013 (3.17%), 25 Apr 2013 (0.46%), 17 May 2013 (-4.02%), 05 Jul 2013 (-0.54%), 08 Aug 2013 (3.11%), 20 Sep 2013 (-3.27%), 03 Nov 2013 (-3.05%), 09 Dec 2013 (3.39%)
20121006 Jan 2012 (1.25%), 30 Mar 2012 (-3.17%), 19 Apr 2012 (-0.4%), 28 May 2012 (-3.38%), 31 Jul 2012 (-1.05%), 08 Sep 2012 (1.11%), 03 Oct 2012 (-3.15%), 02 Nov 2012 (1.57%), 29 Nov 2012 (2.18%), 14 Dec 2012 (-3.26%)
2011817 Feb 2011 (-1.03%), 31 May 2011 (-4.51%), 28 Jun 2011 (2.63%), 19 Jul 2011 (4.2%), 30 Aug 2011 (-2.19%), 13 Oct 2011 (-0.75%), 29 Nov 2011 (8.86%), 23 Dec 2011 (-2.46%)
2010707 Jan 2010 (0.99%), 18 Feb 2010 (-0.86%), 03 Jun 2010 (-5.1%), 09 Jul 2010 (0.63%), 20 Aug 2010 (-4.75%), 27 Sep 2010 (-4.23%), 08 Dec 2010 (-0.98%)
2009802 Mar 2009 (3.52%), 05 May 2009 (6.02%), 19 May 2009 (-4.78%), 02 Jun 2009 (-1.3%), 16 Jul 2009 (8.75%), 04 Sep 2009 (2.3%), 16 Oct 2009 (2.16%), 10 Nov 2009 (-1.04%)
2008615 Feb 2008 (2.02%), 15 May 2008 (2.98%), 09 Jul 2008 (12.12%), 01 Sep 2008 (-1.26%), 28 Oct 2008 (14.63%), 04 Dec 2008 (-3.05%)
2007826 Feb 2007 (-6.92%), 12 Mar 2007 (-1.8%), 03 May 2007 (-5.51%), 18 Jun 2007 (10.07%), 12 Jul 2007 (5.66%), 29 Aug 2007 (3.29%), 30 Nov 2007 (0.75%), 31 Dec 2007 (-2.61%)
2003222 Jan 2003 (-2.7%), 27 Mar 2003 (5649.83%)
2002604 Feb 2002 (14.49%), 25 Feb 2002 (-1.33%), 21 Mar 2002 (-0.43%), 03 Jun 2002 (0.0%), 05 Aug 2002 (-0.25%), 29 Oct 2002 (-2.84%)
20011012 Jan 2001 (7.01%), 22 Feb 2001 (-11.46%), 27 Mar 2001 (-4.31%), 19 Apr 2001 (1.24%), 21 May 2001 (-1.23%), 28 Jun 2001 (-4.86%), 06 Aug 2001 (2.43%), 28 Sep 2001 (-0.65%), 07 Nov 2001 (-25.36%), 05 Dec 2001 (-6.64%)
2000601 Mar 2000 (-9.09%), 15 Mar 2000 (-5.58%), 25 May 2000 (32.37%), 23 Jun 2000 (12.5%), 30 Aug 2000 (3.26%), 08 Nov 2000 (0.0%)
1999919 Feb 1999 (2.48%), 17 Mar 1999 (34.91%), 30 Apr 1999 (3.51%), 27 May 1999 (0.0%), 21 Jun 1999 (-1.47%), 27 Jul 1999 (-2.91%), 20 Aug 1999 (-1.9%), 10 Sep 1999 (26.53%), 26 Nov 1999 (-5.15%)
1998625 Feb 1998 (8.76%), 25 Jun 1998 (-7.94%), 18 Aug 1998 (0.45%), 10 Sep 1998 (1.31%), 09 Dec 1998 (0.0%), 29 Dec 1998 (6.02%)
19971027 Jan 1997 (12.73%), 13 Feb 1997 (6.43%), 03 Mar 1997 (14.07%), 27 Mar 1997 (-3.46%), 13 May 1997 (8.53%), 11 Jun 1997 (-3.59%), 09 Jul 1997 (-4.32%), 24 Jul 1997 (4.45%), 13 Nov 1997 (-1.56%), 17 Dec 1997 (8.36%)
1996512 Feb 1996 (1.42%), 08 Apr 1996 (6.4%), 14 Jun 1996 (1.0%), 05 Aug 1996 (-2.88%), 26 Aug 1996 (-6.09%)
1995505 Apr 1995 (-1.52%), 12 May 1995 (-3.58%), 17 Jul 1995 (9.03%), 12 Sep 1995 (1.79%), 19 Dec 1995 (-2.0%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-131.16382e+07160758546.881618131.12997e+07-5856.21-50727.6527.6324.380.01872738.58
atrtrail-15.91.2242e+071736410936.992022711.18628e+07-6452.61-25383.3631.3518.410.01770763.15
atrnil39.445899781655710834.552841672233.39-9534.58-25383.362.981.570.043575.62
atrnil26.784175021767510142.6118349.6548155.59-9492.29-25383.361.931.440.0352372.17
atrtrail35.122969991776611137.2915335.3962291.51-6442.68-25383.362.381.420.0271677.96
atrtrail24.362734101847111338.5914246.9648155.59-6532.07-25383.362.181.370.0271485.93

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 24.38. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 46.88%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 36.37%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.018, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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