Study: Sell HINDZINC when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and RSI is below 50 and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell HINDZINC when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and RSI is below 50 and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell HINDZINC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-1558.27523404904.417976.99-3789.03-6739.811.290.86-0.013-311.65
2-3285.09514209856.189856.18-3285.32-5485.8930.75-0.026-657.02
3-11363.19523402973.375177.37-5769.98-10344.830.520.34-0.095-2272.64
41042.7514204640.464640.46-899.44-1254.95.161.290.021208.54
54744.99541801911.175143.09-2899.69-2899.690.662.640.082949
69300.93541803069.754908.92-2978.06-2978.061.034.120.151860.19
711024.42541803285.15129.14-2115.99-2115.991.556.210.22204.88
820204.54541806442.27913.54-5564.26-5564.261.164.630.184040.91
921662.27541806434.389195.82-4075.24-4075.241.586.320.214332.45
1027759.575326010002.9812387.34-1124.68-1253.928.8913.340.215551.91
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 3 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
HINDZINC Performance, X=10, Profit Factor:13.3

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019125 Apr 2019 (5.75%)
2017104 May 2017 (6.19%)
2014104 Mar 2014 (-0.5%)
2013128 Jan 2013 (3.06%)
2012107 Mar 2012 (-0.63%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil39.1724090.146335016828.6819780.72-8798.63-10343.961.911.910.0684015.02
200nil33.145395.5772528.5710119.2511644.07-2968.59-3488.373.411.360.029770.8
atrnil27.57261.466335011219.1213187.15-8798.63-10343.961.281.280.0261210.24
200trail22-1157.3472528.576746.177762.71-2929.94-3295.112.30.92-0.0083-165.33
200nil22-1350.672528.576746.177762.71-2968.59-3488.372.270.91-0.0096-192.94
200trail32.29-5109.2472528.574770.228594.44-2929.94-3295.111.630.65-0.04-729.89
200trail-12.57-8150.4772528.573249.615553.21-2929.94-3295.111.110.44-0.084-1164.35
atrtrail24.5-23618.2862433.332506.573671.74-7157.85-10343.960.350.18-0.16-3936.38
atrtrail34.5-23618.2862433.332506.573671.74-7157.85-10343.960.350.18-0.16-3936.38
atrtrail-14.5-23618.2862433.332506.573671.74-7157.85-10343.960.350.18-0.16-3936.38

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.91. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 50%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 2.01%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.068, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
HINDZINC Performance, Profit Factor:1.91

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019125 Apr 2019 (6.17%)
2017104 May 2017 (9.18%)
2014104 Mar 2014 (-2.89%)
2013128 Jan 2013 (9.89%)
2012207 Mar 2012 (-5.13%), 14 Mar 2012 (-5.17%)



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