Study: Sell HINDZINC when there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell HINDZINC when there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell HINDZINC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
141593.041410471.435404.632653.06-3113.24-5714.291.744.340.0752970.93
226554.15149564.296533.4322040.82-6449.34-12274.371.011.820.0491896.73
326667.341477509631.2731020.41-5821.65-17328.521.651.650.0371904.81
447069.13148657.149390.928571.43-4676.34-10045.272.012.680.0693362.08
545837.9214775011397.2136734.69-4848.94-10735.072.352.350.0633274.14
619499.5314775010698.2336734.69-7912.58-11133.521.351.350.0251392.82
740698.23148657.1411158.8740000-8095.46-9681.321.381.840.052907.02
844749.77148657.1412887.236734.69-9724.64-19201.291.331.770.0483196.41
931365.01148657.1414643.3139365.08-14296.92-31383.621.021.370.0262240.36
1035799.52146842.8623788.5744444.44-13366.49-43969.341.781.330.0242557.11

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 4.34. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 71.43%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.49%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.075, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
HINDZINC Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:4.34

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018101 Jun 2018 (1.75%)
2017106 Jun 2017 (-0.17%)
2015123 Jul 2015 (1.15%)
2014106 May 2014 (0.97%)
2013107 Mar 2013 (-0.5%)
2012118 May 2012 (0.04%)
2011118 Nov 2011 (0.05%)
2010123 Jun 2010 (2.05%)
2008107 Feb 2008 (2.33%)
2002116 Aug 2002 (1.28%)
2001107 Aug 2001 (-2.7%)
2000101 Feb 2000 (1.08%)
1997125 Nov 1997 (-2.86%)
1996102 Jan 1996 (16.33%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1141593.041410471.435404.632653.06-3113.24-5714.291.744.340.0752970.93
atrtrail-17.5353961.4915694019289.1247100.98-6863.69-16994.442.811.870.0473597.43
atrtrail36.5646545.95167943.7515474.1634128.31-6863.69-16994.442.251.750.0462909.12
atrtrail26.3828408.11167943.7512883.0424623.41-6863.69-16994.441.881.460.0331775.51
atrnil39.12-5279.54164122528753.0736935.11-10024.32-18057.712.870.96-0.0041-329.97
atrnil27.5-23255.431651131.2518049.8424623.41-10318.6-18057.711.750.8-0.023-1453.46

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 4.34. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 71.43%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.49%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.075, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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