Study: Sell IDFC when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and below 50 SMA and below 20 SMA and ADX is Trending

home > technical-strategy > idfc > 11

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell IDFC when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and below 50 SMA and below 20 SMA and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell IDFC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-2499.5762433.332852.414420.63-2051.1-3475.241.390.7-0.042-416.6
27326.164266.673129.036831.88-2595.01-2790.71.212.410.11221.02
34326.9664266.672930.053996.52-3696.62-4651.160.791.590.06721.16
4-5178.38633505771.910078.19-7498.03-12465.120.770.77-0.031-863.06
52280.1633507401.6713727.19-6641.64-11534.881.111.110.013380.02
6-6274.76633505678.49904.43-7769.99-14668.450.730.73-0.035-1045.79
7-9496.88633502580.144178.54-5745.76-11386.470.450.45-0.082-1582.81
8-14671.94633503804.535191.52-8695.18-12465.120.440.44-0.098-2445.32
9-10695.92633504626.25907.91-8191.51-14325.580.560.56-0.067-1782.65
102339.8633507765.4911294.53-6985.56-11534.881.111.110.013389.97
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
IDFC Performance, X=2, Profit Factor:2.41

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017229 May 2017 (-1.2%), 04 Aug 2017 (1.13%)
2016130 Dec 2016 (-1.4%)
2015113 May 2015 (0.79%)
2013128 Feb 2013 (3.42%)
2010121 Dec 2010 (0.92%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail28.8620277.6674357.147943.6213462.19-3832.28-7579.932.072.760.112896.81
atrnil210.8634336.3374357.1414175.2117200.48-7454.84-7752.551.92.540.124905.19
200nil3418482.3983537.510333.1411450.54-2503.4-3308.214.132.480.12310.3
200trail32.8810754.9583537.56827.110083.7-1945.27-2727.513.512.110.0731344.37
atrtrail310.5711483.5174357.145745.0910911.95-3832.28-7579.931.520.0781640.5
atrtrail-110.5711483.5174357.145745.0910911.95-3832.28-7579.931.520.0781640.5
200nil23.628149.2683537.56888.767633.69-2503.4-3308.212.751.650.061018.66
200trail22.624238.6683537.54655.016722.47-1945.27-2727.512.391.440.04529.83
atrnil321-9281.9461516.6725800.7225800.72-7016.53-7752.553.680.74-0.034-1546.99
200trail-13.38-3349.9483537.52125.474940.97-1945.27-2727.511.090.66-0.048-418.74

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.76. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 57.14%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.45%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
IDFC Performance, Profit Factor:2.76

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017329 May 2017 (0.75%), 04 Aug 2017 (6.54%), 16 Aug 2017 (1.86%)
2016130 Dec 2016 (-3.79%)
2015113 May 2015 (6.73%)
2013128 Feb 2013 (-0.49%)
2010121 Dec 2010 (-1.47%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play