Study: Buy IDFC when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA

home > technical-strategy > idfc > 5

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy IDFC when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy IDFC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
144013.212215768.183926.649899.71-2126.63-5605.21.853.960.142000.6
244103.742214863.645210.859756.1-3606.02-9260.761.452.530.112004.72
331995.192214863.646199.7612315.7-6850.19-14539.010.911.580.0531454.33
49581.6422101245.458336.7314946.62-6148.8-16100.771.361.130.013435.53
524506.52213959.097284.0417945.11-7798.44-15005.480.931.350.0341113.93
616658.012213959.096897.9318389-8112.78-20810.510.851.230.022757.18
737529.872213959.099306.6131827.11-9272.9-23165.3911.450.0391705.9
841913.3822101245.4513181.2632220.04-7491.61-19824.751.761.470.0431905.15
91698.42211115010755.8129862.48-10601.41-26615.551.011.010.001677.2
109642.4722101245.4513024.4942357.56-10050.2-31051.481.31.080.0079438.29

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 3.96. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 68.18%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
IDFC Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:3.96

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019118 Mar 2019 (2.87%)
2018116 Jan 2018 (3.01%)
2017702 Jan 2017 (0.46%), 10 Feb 2017 (-1.68%), 07 Apr 2017 (2.27%), 24 Apr 2017 (0.61%), 30 May 2017 (-0.17%), 21 Jul 2017 (1.11%), 06 Dec 2017 (0.76%)
2016213 Jul 2016 (2.21%), 19 Dec 2016 (-1.87%)
2013316 Apr 2013 (-0.13%), 08 May 2013 (-0.52%), 27 May 2013 (0.48%)
2012225 Apr 2012 (-2.8%), 07 Sep 2012 (0.24%)
2010510 Feb 2010 (2.29%), 07 May 2010 (4.95%), 02 Jun 2010 (4.27%), 26 Nov 2010 (0.78%), 31 Dec 2010 (-0.27%)
2008129 Apr 2008 (3.16%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1144013.212215768.183926.649899.71-2126.63-5605.21.853.960.142000.6
200nil32.7164997.8228121642.869592.4111920.78-3131.94-3972.953.062.30.0982321.35
200trail-13.4342383.7930111936.678557.6928341.85-2723.73-3818.593.141.820.051412.79
200nil22.1835330.1828131546.436349.287947.19-3147.36-3972.952.021.750.0711261.79
200trail32.1732555.0130111936.677664.1711868.44-2723.73-3818.592.811.630.0541085.17
200trail21.8726919.530131743.335762.027947.19-2822.75-3818.592.041.560.055897.32
atrnil38.767115.072161528.5720815.826670.86-7851.98-11969.82.651.060.007338.81
atrtrail-14.881511.682491537.58622.8643755.53-5072.94-8730.731.71.020.001662.99
atrnil26.82-66.052281436.3613702.2417780.57-7834.57-11969.81.751-7.7e-05-3
atrtrail34.54-5685.132491537.57823.2120628.47-5072.94-8730.731.540.93-0.0079-236.88
atrtrail24.46-24515.222491537.55730.9813752.32-5072.94-8730.731.130.68-0.043-1021.47

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 3.96. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 68.18%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play