Study: Buy IGL when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA and above 50 SMA and above 20 SMA and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy IGL when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA and above 50 SMA and above 20 SMA and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy IGL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
110771.4832166.676299.410247.35-1827.32-1827.323.456.890.183590.49
21358.6531233.335918.735918.73-2280.04-2732.762.61.30.03452.88
34760.5831233.338657.248657.24-1948.33-2891.644.442.220.081586.86
46296.1532166.673370.515918.73-444.87-444.877.5815.150.192098.72
53827.5532166.673192.93558.95-2558.25-2558.251.252.50.121275.85
6-101931233.331715.921715.92-1367.46-2558.251.250.63-0.049-339.67
76140.823301002046.943749.600infinf0.362046.94
84855.2332166.673664.364130.92-2473.5-2473.51.482.960.141618.41
914110.43301004703.477492.0100infinf0.564703.47
1018296.163301006098.729319.3200infinf0.536098.72
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 6 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
IGL Performance, X=7, Profit Factor:inf

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2011106 Apr 2011 (1.87%)
2009131 Mar 2009 (0.09%)
2007128 May 2007 (1.1%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail25.2542480.594317514970.7916654.96-2431.77-2431.776.1618.470.3510620.15
atrtrail3931561.574317511331.1120306.63-2431.77-2431.774.6613.980.237890.39
atrtrail-11029743.614317510725.1318488.67-2431.77-2431.774.4113.230.237435.9
atrnil25.2540154.744317514970.7916654.96-4757.62-4757.623.159.440.310038.68
atrnil315.6737628.4932166.6721193.0522079.47-4757.62-4757.624.458.910.2612542.83
200trail227324.25422505943.716338.34-2281.58-3884.422.612.610.111831.06
200nil225290.72422505943.716338.34-3298.34-3884.421.81.80.0721322.68
200trail32.253119.41413259507.519507.51-2129.37-3884.424.461.490.038779.85
200nil32.25136.29413259507.519507.51-3123.74-3884.423.041.010.001634.07
200trail-13.25-3315.66413253072.443072.44-2129.37-3884.421.440.48-0.083-828.91

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 18.47. Number of signals (total trades) generated is small and can't conculde anything from this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
IGL Performance, Profit Factor:18.5

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2011106 Apr 2011 (-1.22%)
2009131 Mar 2009 (6.77%)
2007228 May 2007 (7.36%), 05 Jun 2007 (8.33%)



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