Study: Buy INDIACEM when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA and above 50 SMA and above 20 SMA

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy INDIACEM when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA and above 50 SMA and above 20 SMA" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy INDIACEM at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
11595.57169756.253059.698317.58-3705.95-7680.950.831.060.005199.72
2-9917.731661037.55479.719715.71-4279.6-9805.921.280.77-0.022-619.86
334771.74167943.7511695.9118586.53-5233.29-11972.272.231.740.0462173.23
449388.91167943.7513589.8330829.16-5082.21-9703.842.672.080.0553086.81
537232.51169756.2512756.7426933.78-11082.59-26681.871.151.480.0332327.03
621060.431610662.510996.1926364.69-14816.91-34435.580.741.240.0181316.28
7-4684.07169756.2511500.624930.44-15455.64-36716.080.740.96-0.0036-292.75
85020.291610662.511724.8627935.45-18704.72-39680.730.631.040.0037313.77
921149.79169756.2515267.1243750-16607.75-34891.680.921.180.0131321.86
10-311.47169756.2515210.9150306.07-19601.38-40022.810.781-0.00017-19.47
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 2 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
INDIACEM Performance, X=4, Profit Factor:2.08

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019114 Mar 2019 (-0.64%)
2017123 Oct 2017 (7.95%)
2015216 Apr 2015 (-4.41%), 06 Jul 2015 (-3.22%)
2014125 Feb 2014 (-1.96%)
2013208 Mar 2013 (-1.62%), 15 May 2013 (-3.82%)
2012322 Jun 2012 (1.51%), 17 Aug 2012 (6.18%), 21 Sep 2012 (11.96%)
2010305 Jan 2010 (0.43%), 19 Mar 2010 (4.12%), 29 Sep 2010 (-0.08%)
2003119 May 2003 (-2.27%)
1998119 May 1998 (-4.85%)
1997126 Jun 1997 (15.41%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
200trail31.9147497.5723101343.488248.711111.3-2691.5-3871.043.062.360.0732065.11
200nil31.9142607.172391439.139129.0311111.3-2825.29-3871.043.232.080.0641852.49
200trail-12.9538240.412171433.3310679.4522570.95-2608.27-3871.044.092.050.0491820.97
200trail21.5431992.9726121446.155823.117407.53-2706.02-3871.042.151.840.0581230.5
200nil21.5429213.326121446.155823.117407.53-2904.57-3871.0421.720.0521123.59
atrtrail22.85-12757.44206143012696.5915365.51-6352.64-10220.3420.86-0.014-637.87
atrtrail33.6-18218.16206143011786.4821611.62-6352.64-10220.341.860.8-0.02-910.91
atrtrail-13.85-18793.88206143011690.5222787.98-6352.64-10220.341.840.79-0.021-939.69
atrnil24.16-51935.551951426.3213853.0915365.51-8657.21-15189.881.60.57-0.056-2733.45
atrnil35.74-74705.721931615.792028221611.62-8471.98-15189.882.390.45-0.076-3931.88

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.36. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 43.48%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.03%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.073, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
INDIACEM Performance, Profit Factor:2.36

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019214 Mar 2019 (-1.72%), 20 Mar 2019 (-1.71%)
2017223 Oct 2017 (3.26%), 24 Oct 2017 (5.47%)
2015216 Apr 2015 (-1.05%), 06 Jul 2015 (-1.82%)
2014225 Feb 2014 (-1.22%), 26 Feb 2014 (-1.14%)
2013308 Mar 2013 (-1.37%), 15 May 2013 (4.46%), 17 May 2013 (-1.11%)
2012322 Jun 2012 (5.19%), 17 Aug 2012 (5.46%), 21 Sep 2012 (4.54%)
2010605 Jan 2010 (-0.53%), 13 Jan 2010 (0.16%), 19 Mar 2010 (-1.21%), 29 Sep 2010 (-1.94%), 05 Oct 2010 (5.56%), 12 Oct 2010 (-1.04%)
2003119 May 2003 (-1.64%)
1998119 May 1998 (3.66%)
1997126 Jun 1997 (3.47%)



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