Study: Buy INDIACEM when above 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and above 50 SMA and RSI is above 50

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy INDIACEM when above 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and above 50 SMA and RSI is above 50" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy INDIACEM at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-2760.291661037.53770.177264.72-2538.13-8103.731.490.89-0.0091-172.52
2-354.2816412259944.7620789.8-3344.44-10696.922.970.99-0.00063-22.14
315084.03167943.758728.0716340.05-5112.49-16477.271.711.330.022942.75
416797.2167943.758649.8432812.02-4861.3-14393.941.781.380.0211049.83
57469.55167943.759356.1930910.76-6447.09-15340.911.451.130.0091466.85
666535.15169756.2512512.6546979.45-6582.68-19124.81.92.440.0594158.45
744972.21167943.7516585.9848390.06-7903.29-23987.032.11.630.0362810.76
820568.631661037.518894.9151272.62-9280.08-26580.232.041.220.0151285.54
923534.7167943.7516850.9259920.27-10491.3-19124.81.611.250.0161470.92
1034314.06157846.6716910.9965501.38-10507.86-17375.231.611.410.0232287.6
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
INDIACEM Performance, X=6, Profit Factor:2.44

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019131 May 2019 (-5.11%)
2017313 Apr 2017 (23.49%), 19 Jul 2017 (2.94%), 23 Oct 2017 (7.2%)
2013230 Jan 2013 (-0.57%), 08 Mar 2013 (-2.02%)
2012131 Dec 2012 (1.21%)
2009129 Sep 2009 (-3.44%)
2007115 Nov 2007 (1.13%)
2006118 Dec 2006 (4.11%)
2005301 Jul 2005 (10.18%), 24 Nov 2005 (1.09%), 08 Dec 2005 (-1.96%)
2004125 Nov 2004 (4.95%)
2003113 Oct 2003 (-9.56%)
2002110 Jan 2002 (-0.37%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil25.94-12195.491751229.4117808.0422717.04-8436.31-12570.612.110.88-0.012-717.38
50trail21.67-7032.642471729.175955.777841.99-2866.06-3834.192.080.86-0.015-293.03
50nil21.67-8064.682471729.175955.777841.99-2926.77-3978.962.030.84-0.017-336.03
atrtrail24.32-13923.481961331.588785.0922717.04-5125.69-10794.471.710.79-0.018-732.81
atrtrail-14.74-19012.841961331.587936.8624558.93-5125.69-10794.471.550.71-0.026-1000.68
50trail31.96-18921.812442016.678165.089047.43-2579.11-3834.193.170.63-0.04-788.41
atrtrail34.68-25743.91961331.586815.0217827.87-5125.69-10794.471.330.61-0.04-1354.94
50nil31.96-27053.152442016.678165.089047.43-2985.67-3978.962.730.55-0.055-1127.21
atrnil38.19-70245.851621412.523602.2529376.62-8389.31-12417.492.810.4-0.082-4390.37
50trail-12.3-34703.92332013.045590.0812099.92-2573.71-3834.192.170.33-0.093-1508.87

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.88. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 29.41%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.36%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
INDIACEM Performance, Profit Factor:0.88

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019131 May 2019 (-5.37%)
2017413 Apr 2017 (5.94%), 19 Jul 2017 (-3.35%), 21 Jul 2017 (-3.44%), 23 Oct 2017 (6.67%)
2013230 Jan 2013 (-2.92%), 08 Mar 2013 (-3.45%)
2012131 Dec 2012 (-2.91%)
2009129 Sep 2009 (-3.54%)
2007215 Nov 2007 (11.36%), 23 Nov 2007 (-6.29%)
2006118 Dec 2006 (10.76%)
2005201 Jul 2005 (9.79%), 24 Nov 2005 (-4.17%)
2004125 Nov 2004 (-3.58%)
2003113 Oct 2003 (-5.4%)
2002110 Jan 2002 (-6.21%)



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