Study: Buy INDIACEM when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy INDIACEM when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy INDIACEM at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
15274.8146842.866216.9414956.95-4003.35-7680.951.551.160.013376.77
2-46829.931477502518.4210291.6-9208.41-30818.970.270.27-0.076-3345
32651.971477507019.1318586.53-6640.27-21336.211.061.060.0042189.43
41184.751441028.5715260.5330829.16-5985.74-18965.522.551.020.001584.62
510954.23145935.7118583.8126933.78-9107.2-32112.072.041.130.01782.45
6-13916.26146842.8613314.1621795.82-11725.15-27801.721.140.85-0.014-994.02
7-2105.3414775012213.1224930.44-12513.88-24784.480.980.98-0.002-150.38
89482.02146842.8616859.629674.1-11459.45-33280.171.471.10.0077677.29
936818.95146842.8621812.243750-11756.79-31578.951.861.390.0252629.92
1050975.514775022114.5350306.07-14832.31-36576.291.491.490.0323641.11
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 2 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
200trail-12.687001.121931615.7915739.1624320.75-2513.52-3871.046.261.170.0095368.48
200trail21.521591.912171433.335759.87499.14-2766.19-3871.042.081.040.003875.81
200trail31.79-2096.521951426.327282.2311248.71-2750.55-3871.042.650.95-0.0046-110.34
200nil21.52-2839.42171433.335759.87499.14-3082.71-3911.61.870.93-0.0065-135.21
atrtrail-14.67-9283.631831516.6733224.9272742.73-7263.89-15741.694.570.91-0.0055-515.76
200nil31.79-8638.571941521.059021.3511248.71-2981.6-3911.63.030.81-0.019-454.66
atrnil35.29-51654.871731417.6525688.2631130.45-9194.26-15741.692.790.6-0.046-3038.52
atrtrail33.33-58879.991831516.6716692.824322.73-7263.89-15741.692.30.46-0.066-3271.11
atrnil24.18-77343.131731417.6517125.5120753.63-9194.26-15741.691.860.4-0.09-4549.6
atrtrail23.06-74191.441831516.6711588.9816215.15-7263.89-15741.691.60.32-0.11-4121.75

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.17. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 15.79%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.18%, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.0095, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
INDIACEM Performance, Profit Factor:1.17

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019214 Mar 2019 (-1.72%), 20 Mar 2019 (-1.71%)
2016208 Dec 2016 (-1.13%), 30 Dec 2016 (12.16%)
2015216 Feb 2015 (-1.34%), 06 Jul 2015 (-1.82%)
2014202 Dec 2014 (-1.79%), 05 Dec 2014 (-1.18%)
2013227 Feb 2013 (-1.0%), 08 Mar 2013 (-1.37%)
2010505 Jan 2010 (-0.53%), 13 Jan 2010 (0.16%), 29 Sep 2010 (-1.94%), 05 Oct 2010 (-0.71%), 12 Oct 2010 (-1.04%)
2007130 Jul 2007 (-0.15%)
2003119 May 2003 (-1.64%)
2001125 Apr 2001 (-1.05%)
1997126 Jun 1997 (11.29%)



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