Study: Buy IRB when RSI is below 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy IRB when RSI is below 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy IRB at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
113394.6838162242.115032.7115029.39-3051.3-11508.771.651.20.02352.49
2-22961.138182047.375276.1811892.63-5896.62-13651.880.890.81-0.026-604.24
3-25585.74381919507005.9418827.93-8352.56-21988.30.840.84-0.022-673.31
4-55628.9938211755.267298.3934788.03-12287.96-27680.950.590.73-0.035-1463.92
5-67515.5338182047.378720.2634413.97-11224.01-44371.540.780.7-0.038-1776.72
6-9493.1338162242.1113473.942768.08-10230.71-42444.131.320.96-0.0046-249.82
734968.7238172144.7413647.7560099.75-9383-32725.041.451.180.017920.23
829120.1238182047.3714697.6159601-11771.84-49263.161.251.120.012766.32
954294.5438211755.2613986.6279426.43-14083.79-52444.440.991.230.0211428.8
1063847.6738211755.2614877.9949127.18-14622.95-45614.041.021.260.0261680.2
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 5 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil29.1114071137172045.9520126.5136047.69-10071.99-18621.6821.70.0723803
atrnil314.4712441436112530.5633249.654071.53-9653.24-18621.683.441.520.053455.96
atrtrail25.95215.8938122631.5814381.8536047.69-6629.47-16862.52.1710.000145.68
atrtrail36.37-16277.5438122631.5813007.434227.16-6629.47-16862.51.960.91-0.011-428.36
atrtrail-16.79-26539.0138122631.5812152.2830250.33-6629.47-16862.51.830.85-0.019-698.39

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.7. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 45.95%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.9%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.072, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
IRB Performance, Profit Factor:1.7

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019222 Feb 2019 (11.41%), 17 May 2019 (11.67%)
2018628 Feb 2018 (-3.47%), 16 Mar 2018 (6.35%), 07 Jun 2018 (-4.39%), 10 Jul 2018 (-3.79%), 25 Jul 2018 (-4.75%), 12 Oct 2018 (-6.99%)
2017307 Jun 2017 (-3.61%), 06 Jul 2017 (5.38%), 28 Aug 2017 (5.94%)
2016325 Jan 2016 (-4.0%), 29 Feb 2016 (8.41%), 30 Nov 2016 (9.57%)
2015315 May 2015 (8.49%), 24 Jun 2015 (7.46%), 14 Sep 2015 (-5.33%)
2014211 Feb 2014 (9.96%), 17 Oct 2014 (8.9%)
2013507 Feb 2013 (-4.62%), 20 Feb 2013 (-4.6%), 03 Apr 2013 (9.63%), 11 Jul 2013 (-5.68%), 13 Aug 2013 (-9.31%)
2012323 May 2012 (18.02%), 17 Aug 2012 (9.27%), 13 Nov 2012 (-4.92%)
2011427 Jan 2011 (-4.54%), 17 Feb 2011 (13.73%), 30 May 2011 (9.61%), 01 Dec 2011 (-4.76%)
2010204 Jun 2010 (-3.97%), 01 Dec 2010 (-5.63%)
2009227 Mar 2009 (17.28%), 29 Dec 2009 (-3.56%)
2008217 Jun 2008 (-5.35%), 11 Jul 2008 (-7.46%)



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