Study: Buy JUBLFOOD when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

home > technical-strategy > jublfood > 31

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy JUBLFOOD when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy JUBLFOOD at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
114196.542222052.384203.8815531.19-3914.44-21059.811.071.180.018338.01
24241.4742202247.625924.1120596.07-5192.76-29800.631.141.040.0039100.99
330742.23422121508469.1332909.48-7005.22-24679.961.211.210.022731.96
425014.0242202247.629741.1727903.7-7718.6-23074.51.261.150.017595.57
53367.394221215010266.3437372.47-10105.99-30184.871.021.020.001980.18
630037.242222052.3810156.1630778.51-9669.92-25891.271.051.160.018715.17
7-2024142231954.768515.4423254.21-11373.48-27913.430.750.91-0.013-481.93
8-35758.7342192345.249674.6826808.06-9546.86-24428.121.010.84-0.023-851.4
913451.4942202247.6210927.4235834.55-9322.58-32991.391.171.070.0078320.27
1036998.3442251759.529772.0728818.41-12194.31-48476.990.81.180.02880.91
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 2 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail24.7377226.9444192543.1812056.4525308.64-6073.83-11176.81.981.510.0531755.16
atrtrail35.7770267.8544192543.1811690.1937962.96-6073.83-11176.81.921.460.0451597
atrnil39.8270565.5340112927.526721.0337962.96-7702.27-12212.273.471.320.0361764.14
atrtrail-16.2546073.8944192543.1810416.8236535.67-6073.83-11176.81.721.30.0321047.13
atrnil25.8851854.4643162737.2116418.8225308.64-7809.14-12212.272.11.250.0321205.92

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.51. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 43.18%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.88%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.053, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
JUBLFOOD Performance, Profit Factor:1.51

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019420 May 2019 (-3.02%), 16 Jul 2019 (-2.81%), 26 Aug 2019 (7.86%), 23 Oct 2019 (2.36%)
2018524 May 2018 (0.15%), 07 Jun 2018 (3.07%), 03 Jul 2018 (-2.62%), 15 Oct 2018 (2.37%), 09 Nov 2018 (11.51%)
2017603 Mar 2017 (6.19%), 26 Apr 2017 (-2.59%), 17 Aug 2017 (-3.88%), 13 Nov 2017 (1.54%), 27 Nov 2017 (-2.67%), 20 Dec 2017 (-2.53%)
2016929 Jan 2016 (-4.11%), 01 Feb 2016 (-4.87%), 29 Feb 2016 (12.65%), 26 Apr 2016 (-2.88%), 09 Jun 2016 (-4.74%), 29 Jul 2016 (0.73%), 03 Oct 2016 (8.04%), 28 Nov 2016 (-0.06%), 28 Dec 2016 (0.96%)
2015319 Jun 2015 (5.44%), 11 Sep 2015 (-2.14%), 19 Nov 2015 (7.6%)
2014318 Feb 2014 (-0.08%), 22 Mar 2014 (5.54%), 26 Jun 2014 (-3.14%)
2013520 Feb 2013 (-3.77%), 02 May 2013 (-2.53%), 16 May 2013 (-0.56%), 26 Jun 2013 (7.21%), 28 Nov 2013 (-1.27%)
2012213 Mar 2012 (-1.53%), 02 Apr 2012 (-5.11%)
2011621 Feb 2011 (10.14%), 09 May 2011 (-5.01%), 10 May 2011 (-5.59%), 25 May 2011 (10.68%), 30 Jun 2011 (-3.79%), 28 Nov 2011 (10.51%)
2010102 Jun 2010 (-4.63%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play