Study: Buy KAJARIACER when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy KAJARIACER when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy KAJARIACER at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
112228295484750.535672.6137826.09-3191.56-18760.471.781.820.0361287.18
222145295504552.638446.8385652.17-4464.22-16750.421.892.10.0412331.07
331021195603563.168629.59102174-5930.4-22222.221.462.490.0493265.38
432026695554057.899779.2975217.39-5439.88-26131.691.82.470.0583371.22
529496795583761.059985.573043.48-7680.87-30658.441.32.040.053104.91
626523495544156.8410766.0954782.61-7710.61-25988.71.41.840.0462791.94
728883795554057.8911040.7360434.78-7960.09-32510.291.391.910.0463040.39
832222995583761.0510746.4751739.13-8136.9-32304.531.322.070.0543391.89
934357095563958.9512185.0547826.09-8686.99-45267.491.42.010.0523616.53
1046779895603563.1613270.859950.25-9384.29-40534.981.412.420.0664924.19

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 3 trading days. Profit factor is 2.49. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 63.16%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.63%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.049, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
KAJARIACER Performance, X=3, Profit Factor:2.49

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019201 Apr 2019 (1.71%), 08 Aug 2019 (1.22%)
2018727 Feb 2018 (-2.0%), 14 May 2018 (3.19%), 12 Jul 2018 (-4.33%), 26 Jul 2018 (2.56%), 21 Aug 2018 (5.66%), 16 Oct 2018 (-10.33%), 19 Dec 2018 (0.94%)
2017209 May 2017 (-3.64%), 21 Aug 2017 (10.0%)
2016802 Mar 2016 (1.37%), 01 Jun 2016 (5.89%), 08 Jul 2016 (1.34%), 01 Aug 2016 (-2.24%), 23 Aug 2016 (-0.41%), 28 Sep 2016 (0.62%), 28 Nov 2016 (1.17%), 30 Dec 2016 (4.25%)
2015409 Jul 2015 (0.3%), 04 Sep 2015 (2.53%), 23 Nov 2015 (-0.58%), 15 Dec 2015 (-0.71%)
2014524 Jan 2014 (-1.05%), 22 Aug 2014 (0.49%), 07 Oct 2014 (0.52%), 17 Nov 2014 (0.33%), 29 Dec 2014 (6.57%)
2013407 Feb 2013 (-2.86%), 28 Mar 2013 (1.4%), 31 May 2013 (0.96%), 02 Sep 2013 (0.55%)
2012528 Feb 2012 (-0.77%), 19 Mar 2012 (-3.83%), 10 Apr 2012 (-0.63%), 12 Jun 2012 (0.71%), 12 Sep 2012 (2.69%)
2011528 Apr 2011 (-5.75%), 27 Jun 2011 (0.0%), 07 Sep 2011 (0.42%), 13 Oct 2011 (-0.25%), 01 Dec 2011 (2.52%)
2010222 Apr 2010 (2.4%), 06 Sep 2010 (-0.36%)
2009405 Jan 2009 (0.63%), 04 May 2009 (-4.14%), 15 Oct 2009 (0.71%), 24 Dec 2009 (4.61%)
2008308 Sep 2008 (-4.5%), 23 Oct 2008 (-8.21%), 04 Dec 2008 (6.41%)
2007408 Mar 2007 (-2.06%), 04 Jun 2007 (-5.08%), 21 Jun 2007 (51.09%), 16 Nov 2007 (14.44%)
2006423 Feb 2006 (5.05%), 30 Aug 2006 (0.86%), 18 Sep 2006 (11.87%), 29 Dec 2006 (-1.82%)
2005908 Apr 2005 (-0.59%), 10 May 2005 (0.9%), 10 Jun 2005 (2.96%), 24 Jun 2005 (0.94%), 11 Jul 2005 (2.08%), 17 Aug 2005 (2.86%), 13 Sep 2005 (0.63%), 27 Sep 2005 (0.88%), 10 Nov 2005 (0.85%)
2004330 Mar 2004 (7.88%), 28 Jun 2004 (10.64%), 06 Aug 2004 (0.05%)
2003404 Jul 2003 (18.48%), 13 Aug 2003 (1.4%), 26 Sep 2003 (4.48%), 21 Nov 2003 (7.1%)
2002311 Feb 2002 (8.36%), 11 Apr 2002 (5.88%), 14 Aug 2002 (1.46%)
2001105 Oct 2001 (-4.86%)
2000209 May 2000 (-11.11%), 28 Nov 2000 (5.28%)
1999229 Jan 1999 (-4.28%), 01 Mar 1999 (10.74%)
1998402 Jan 1998 (-1.47%), 02 Jul 1998 (1.63%), 21 Aug 1998 (-1.15%), 30 Dec 1998 (0.15%)
1997218 Feb 1997 (-1.5%), 17 Jun 1997 (-0.92%)
1996216 Jan 1996 (-4.33%), 13 Feb 1996 (4.17%)
1995428 Jun 1995 (1.05%), 29 Sep 1995 (-1.22%), 01 Nov 1995 (-6.72%), 12 Dec 1995 (-0.08%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1331021195603563.168629.59102174-5930.4-22222.221.462.490.0493265.38
atrtrail36.17302346110426838.1817756.0143789.39-6520.68-21413.572.721.680.0392748.6
atrnil28.74356368106475944.3419612.93102245-9583.72-28223.292.051.630.043361.96
atrtrail-17.4256916107396836.4517916.5785632.72-6497.5-21413.572.761.580.0292401.09
atrtrail25.37246959113446938.9416056.7536177.89-6659.97-21413.572.411.540.0362185.48
atrnil312.5533595299336633.3329428.2354266.83-9623.93-51122.73.061.530.0353393.45

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.49. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 63.16%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.63%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.049, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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