Study: Sell KAJARIACER when there is bearish divergence in RSI and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell KAJARIACER when there is bearish divergence in RSI and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell KAJARIACER at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
128246.5641231856.14030.3815849.06-3580.68-17693.521.131.440.026688.94
268974.8241271465.856083.2328846.96-6805.16-29067.930.891.720.0371682.31
331820.1941212051.227262.8917962.47-6035.03-36966.821.21.260.017776.1
4-8806.7341212051.226773.5822138.36-7552.59-31595.580.90.94-0.0046-214.8
5-6405.6241221953.666899.7819045.08-8326.36-27804.110.830.96-0.0032-156.23
6-16776.8241231856.18117.6923793.01-11304.65-33807.270.720.92-0.007-409.19
7-24320.3641202148.789592.8228932.04-10294.14-37914.690.930.89-0.0094-593.18
816712.1141231856.19623.9333786.41-11368.8-36018.960.851.080.0062407.61
912699.0841192246.3412809.432038.83-10485.43-36334.911.221.060.0045309.73
10-5007.8841192246.3412714.125297.62-11207.99-357031.130.98-0.0018-122.14
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil25.47-12322958154325.8616496.7429531.37-8620.47-17645.851.910.67-0.038-2124.64
atrnil37.6-13486658104817.2426965.544297.06-8427.52-17645.853.20.67-0.034-2325.27
atrtrail23.71-10223463224134.927755.2622976.83-6654.87-16216.561.170.63-0.041-1622.76
atrtrail33.92-12656263214233.337018.8326438.74-6522.79-16216.561.080.54-0.052-2008.91
atrtrail-14.05-14346963214233.336213.7320449.66-6522.79-16216.560.950.48-0.064-2277.28

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.67. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
KAJARIACER Performance, Profit Factor:0.668

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019324 Jan 2019 (-2.47%), 05 Feb 2019 (5.27%), 15 Apr 2019 (4.82%)
2018127 Nov 2018 (7.06%)
2017307 Feb 2017 (6.19%), 20 Apr 2017 (-2.64%), 05 May 2017 (-2.43%)
2016228 Apr 2016 (-2.52%), 17 Jun 2016 (-2.49%)
2015428 Jan 2015 (-3.25%), 03 Feb 2015 (-3.08%), 18 Feb 2015 (6.86%), 21 Oct 2015 (-2.97%)
2014701 Jan 2014 (-2.92%), 13 May 2014 (-3.27%), 16 May 2014 (-3.07%), 20 May 2014 (-2.95%), 26 May 2014 (-3.51%), 27 May 2014 (-4.21%), 06 Jun 2014 (8.81%)
2013310 May 2013 (6.94%), 10 Jun 2013 (6.8%), 20 Dec 2013 (-3.12%)
2012710 Feb 2012 (-4.01%), 16 Feb 2012 (-4.04%), 02 Mar 2012 (-4.07%), 13 Mar 2012 (-3.7%), 20 Mar 2012 (-3.92%), 30 Apr 2012 (6.06%), 07 Dec 2012 (6.1%)
2011128 Jul 2011 (7.29%)
2010114 Jan 2010 (-4.85%)
2005828 Apr 2005 (-3.88%), 25 May 2005 (-3.6%), 20 Jun 2005 (-3.97%), 27 Jun 2005 (-3.97%), 04 Jul 2005 (-3.77%), 14 Jul 2005 (-3.63%), 22 Jul 2005 (-5.09%), 25 Jul 2005 (-5.39%)
2004423 Jul 2004 (-4.9%), 09 Aug 2004 (-4.06%), 22 Nov 2004 (-4.78%), 25 Nov 2004 (-4.96%)
2003819 Jun 2003 (-5.45%), 04 Jul 2003 (-4.95%), 15 Jul 2003 (-6.93%), 16 Jul 2003 (-8.62%), 16 Oct 2003 (-8.11%), 20 Oct 2003 (-8.05%), 21 Oct 2003 (-8.82%), 23 Dec 2003 (13.24%)
2002102 Jul 2002 (14.77%)
2000305 Jan 2000 (11.49%), 13 Dec 2000 (-5.64%), 14 Dec 2000 (12.04%)
1998117 Apr 1998 (-5.49%)
1997120 Jan 1997 (-1.81%)



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