Study: Sell KAJARIACER when there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)

home > technical-strategy > kajariacer > 49

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell KAJARIACER when there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell KAJARIACER at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-13948.351596602447.626539.51-5996.15-13336.110.410.61-0.036-929.89
2-5007.281596604031.737571.38-6882.15-17432.650.590.88-0.01-333.82
37616.371596604860.749090.91-6021.71-15847.860.811.210.015507.76
438971.181510566.676565.3917253.95-5336.54-14292.651.232.460.0712598.08
524679.581596607892.2312361.33-7725.09-18908.991.021.530.0361645.31
632908.151596608719.4425673.53-7594.47-16666.671.151.720.0442193.88
72976.29158753.338968.6515213.95-9824.7-25724.640.911.040.0037198.42
8-45491596608834.8118441.56-14010.39-27536.230.630.95-0.0047-303.27
94026.771596609565.223376.62-13676.68-30927.840.71.050.0039268.45
10-40032.66157846.6711722.3619651.35-15261.15-46436.580.770.67-0.032-2668.84
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
KAJARIACER Performance, X=4, Profit Factor:2.46

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019121 Aug 2019 (-0.39%)
2018116 Feb 2018 (2.84%)
2016119 Dec 2016 (3.6%)
2015116 Sep 2015 (-7.15%)
2013101 Apr 2013 (0.37%)
2012120 Jan 2012 (-0.99%)
2011107 Mar 2011 (0.66%)
2008101 Dec 2008 (-3.08%)
2007121 Feb 2007 (4.55%)
2005118 Nov 2005 (3.25%)
2002125 Oct 2002 (0.27%)
2001102 Mar 2001 (-1.74%)
2000116 May 2000 (8.63%)
1997121 May 1997 (6.58%)
1996119 Aug 1996 (2.07%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail25.71-30456.121761135.2910613.8229740.62-8558.1-17098.91.240.68-0.032-1791.54
atrnil312.88-95681.461731417.6526420.6544610.94-12495.96-39292.522.110.45-0.066-5628.32
atrnil27.47-1136861741323.5314613.0629740.62-13241.38-39292.521.10.34-0.094-6687.39
atrtrail36.24-72471.191751229.414526.710096.44-7925.39-17098.90.570.24-0.12-4263.01
atrtrail-16.24-72471.191751229.414526.710096.44-7925.39-17098.90.570.24-0.12-4263.01

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.68. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
KAJARIACER Performance, Profit Factor:0.676

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019121 Aug 2019 (-1.04%)
2018116 Feb 2018 (7.15%)
2016119 Dec 2016 (2.15%)
2015216 Sep 2015 (-3.15%), 18 Sep 2015 (-2.47%)
2013101 Apr 2013 (0.46%)
2012220 Jan 2012 (-3.99%), 23 Jan 2012 (-4.03%)
2011107 Mar 2011 (-3.6%)
2008101 Dec 2008 (-8.48%)
2007121 Feb 2007 (14.87%)
2005118 Nov 2005 (-7.18%)
2002125 Oct 2002 (-3.42%)
2001102 Mar 2001 (-8.55%)
2000116 May 2000 (-1.16%)
1997121 May 1997 (4.4%)
1996119 Aug 1996 (2.81%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play