Study: Buy KAJARIACER when RSI is above 50 and ADX is Trending and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy KAJARIACER when RSI is above 50 and ADX is Trending and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy KAJARIACER at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
127738.0510464012376.5140000-3628-10943.913.412.270.0442773.8
248013.7210555013727.8744761.9-4125.13-14500.683.333.330.0684801.37
376904.5310464026543.8961904.76-4878.51-19972.645.443.630.0757690.45
465158.0410555021499.4655714.29-8467.85-251712.542.540.0626515.8
559618.1310464028924.3750000-9346.56-28727.773.092.060.0535961.81
686583.7110555026051.570476.19-8734.76-29548.562.982.980.0658658.37
710439710646024825.3677142.86-11138.76-32831.742.233.340.07410439.71
898923.7310737020405.567142.86-14638.25-32284.541.393.250.0769892.37
984676.9110646022514.959523.81-12603.12-32284.541.792.680.0728467.69
1067138.8110646020297.7447142.86-13661.9-35294.121.492.230.0626713.88

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 3 trading days. Profit factor is 3.63. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 40%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 3.85%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.075, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
KAJARIACER Performance, X=3, Profit Factor:3.63

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019121 Jan 2019 (-0.11%)
2017125 Apr 2017 (-0.09%)
2015128 Oct 2015 (-0.64%)
2013106 Jun 2013 (-1.69%)
2012130 Jan 2012 (11.7%)
2011125 Apr 2011 (9.17%)
2009109 Jun 2009 (-9.99%)
2006124 Aug 2006 (1.26%)
2002120 Jun 2002 (30.95%)
1997119 Feb 1997 (-2.13%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1376904.5310464026543.8961904.76-4878.51-19972.645.443.630.0757690.45
atrtrail-14.0952731.47113827.2737395.3457807.75-7431.82-16308.75.031.890.0454793.77
atrtrail32.8225675.81113827.2728376.7836431.77-7431.82-16308.73.821.430.0292334.16
atrnil3320412.83113827.2728376.7836431.77-8089.69-16308.73.511.320.0231855.71
atrtrail22.73-2700.97113827.2718917.8624287.85-7431.82-16308.72.550.95-0.0041-245.54
atrnil22.91-7963.95113827.2718917.8624287.85-8089.69-16308.72.340.88-0.012-724

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 3.63. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 40%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 3.85%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.075, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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