Study: Sell KSCL when there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

home > technical-strategy > kscl > 27

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell KSCL when there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell KSCL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
112772.4443182541.865304.3115959.25-3308.2-10273.971.61.150.017297.03
2475.0142202247.625102.0320761.58-4616.62-12342.641.1110.0004911.31
3-86930.7742162638.15906.7918474.74-6978.44-29008.860.850.52-0.073-2069.78
4-88970.4742172540.485908.8920033.96-7576.86-28913.80.780.53-0.071-2118.34
5-9470.5542192345.248011.1925660.93-7029.7-21635.781.140.94-0.0071-225.49
6-8763342182442.868748.318481.69-10212.6-26048.210.860.64-0.053-2086.5
7-95090.8442182442.869150.5929704.42-10825.06-34987.510.850.63-0.052-2264.07
867301.7342182442.8617422.61154740-10262.72-36513.41.71.270.0181602.42
970837.1242192345.2416888.08154068-10871.15-22614.21.551.280.0191686.6
10-9272.1142172540.4820716.1156006-14457.83-37796.231.430.97-0.0023-220.76
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 3 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil37.79-2461224893918.7526903.1744217.52-12519.24-79606.992.150.5-0.079-5127.54
atrtrail24.22-23441751123923.5311046.529478.34-9409.62-56543.681.170.36-0.11-4596.41
atrnil25.53-33286951104119.6117515.9529478.34-12390.93-79606.991.410.34-0.12-6526.83
atrtrail34.86-260828501139229649.725582.67-9409.62-56543.681.030.29-0.13-5216.57
atrtrail-14.9-280096501139227898.1316613.73-9409.62-56543.680.840.24-0.15-5601.91

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.5. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
KSCL Performance, Profit Factor:0.496

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018325 Apr 2018 (-3.1%), 17 Aug 2018 (-3.12%), 03 Sep 2018 (7.78%)
2017329 Mar 2017 (-3.21%), 20 Jun 2017 (-3.3%), 21 Jun 2017 (-3.29%)
2016315 Jan 2016 (-6.75%), 01 Sep 2016 (-3.53%), 28 Oct 2016 (10.3%)
2015108 Dec 2015 (14.19%)
2014615 Jan 2014 (-3.6%), 16 Jan 2014 (-3.59%), 28 Jan 2014 (-39.8%), 11 Jul 2014 (-6.07%), 16 Sep 2014 (12.79%), 24 Dec 2014 (11.45%)
2013224 Jan 2013 (-3.68%), 18 Jun 2013 (11.12%)
2012702 Mar 2012 (-4.45%), 02 May 2012 (-4.11%), 04 Jun 2012 (-5.45%), 10 Jul 2012 (-3.44%), 10 Oct 2012 (-4.14%), 29 Oct 2012 (-4.14%), 12 Dec 2012 (-3.35%)
2011715 Apr 2011 (-5.47%), 18 Apr 2011 (-5.46%), 13 May 2011 (-4.51%), 16 May 2011 (-4.44%), 24 May 2011 (-4.24%), 16 Jun 2011 (-3.76%), 04 Aug 2011 (11.81%)
2010527 Jan 2010 (-6.38%), 03 May 2010 (-3.47%), 04 May 2010 (-3.55%), 04 Aug 2010 (-4.77%), 18 Nov 2010 (-6.43%)
2009729 Jan 2009 (-7.47%), 19 Mar 2009 (-7.2%), 24 Apr 2009 (-8.96%), 27 Apr 2009 (-8.82%), 16 Jun 2009 (22.11%), 17 Aug 2009 (-6.5%), 14 Oct 2009 (-4.98%)
2008420 Jun 2008 (19.52%), 27 Oct 2008 (-17.67%), 03 Dec 2008 (-9.66%), 24 Dec 2008 (-8.27%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play