Study: Buy KTKBANK when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy KTKBANK when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy KTKBANK at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-13053.8569274239.135191.121510.67-3647.94-19209.041.420.91-0.0069-189.19
224466.6169303943.488746.632676.52-6100.81-24051.651.431.10.0082354.59
338295.5869343549.288603.7829256.59-7263.8-24557.261.181.150.013555.01
423977.0669353450.728326.1430215.83-7865.82-25665.861.061.090.0077347.49
5-37323.6169323746.3810083.3329539.53-9729.46-32122.681.040.9-0.01-540.92
6-91463.7469343549.2810163.6432016.42-12486.5-36965.290.810.79-0.021-1325.56
7-84160.2369323746.3812189.7737410.07-12817.1-46418.060.950.82-0.017-1219.71
84759869333647.8316048.3158735.5-13388.78-44207.321.21.10.0085689.83
915229669363352.1717756.5110213-14755.71-40609.761.21.310.0232207.18
1018779869373253.6218082.97124504-15039.75-48353.661.21.390.0262721.71
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 6 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail-15.4413808577314640.2615952.77106822-7748.93-16267.252.061.390.0241793.31
atrnil37.6217876478265233.3325150.347427.55-9137.39-16267.252.751.380.0312291.84
atrtrail23.7795994.2481344741.9813479.7527445.3-7708.88-16267.251.751.260.0241185.11
atrtrail34.7276784.7878314739.7414097.941167.94-7664.89-16267.251.841.210.018984.42
atrnil24.9993487.2281334840.7416471.8431618.37-9376.74-16267.251.761.210.021154.16

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.39. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 40.26%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.9%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.024, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
KTKBANK Performance, Profit Factor:1.39

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019108 Apr 2019 (-3.4%)
2018226 Feb 2018 (-3.62%), 11 Oct 2018 (-3.89%)
2017506 Apr 2017 (-2.2%), 07 Apr 2017 (7.56%), 28 Apr 2017 (1.89%), 18 Aug 2017 (-3.68%), 21 Dec 2017 (-1.84%)
2016701 Feb 2016 (-3.65%), 15 Feb 2016 (-4.3%), 11 May 2016 (-1.25%), 23 May 2016 (2.97%), 04 Jul 2016 (3.38%), 10 Nov 2016 (-4.95%), 11 Nov 2016 (-5.33%)
2015201 Apr 2015 (2.89%), 14 Sep 2015 (-0.76%)
2014418 Feb 2014 (7.62%), 28 Apr 2014 (-3.32%), 06 Jun 2014 (-4.11%), 17 Oct 2014 (16.68%)
2013302 Apr 2013 (-4.92%), 10 Jul 2013 (-4.98%), 13 Aug 2013 (-7.37%)
2012503 Jan 2012 (8.59%), 28 May 2012 (-4.51%), 08 Sep 2012 (-3.06%), 17 Sep 2012 (26.28%), 01 Nov 2012 (0.82%)
2011515 Feb 2011 (-4.68%), 03 Mar 2011 (-5.48%), 23 Mar 2011 (14.45%), 27 Jun 2011 (-2.53%), 30 Aug 2011 (-0.54%)
2010402 Mar 2010 (6.2%), 19 May 2010 (0.14%), 22 Jun 2010 (1.39%), 21 Dec 2010 (-0.32%)
2009416 Mar 2009 (5.39%), 06 May 2009 (2.22%), 21 Jul 2009 (-3.79%), 17 Oct 2009 (-1.18%)
2008204 Apr 2008 (1.27%), 10 Jul 2008 (-6.55%)
2007422 Jan 2007 (11.13%), 23 Mar 2007 (-4.65%), 09 Apr 2007 (-2.73%), 29 May 2007 (-3.11%)
2006530 May 2006 (-7.25%), 20 Jun 2006 (0.69%), 05 Sep 2006 (-3.34%), 16 Oct 2006 (-3.51%), 27 Nov 2006 (10.54%)
2005720 Apr 2005 (-4.35%), 05 May 2005 (-4.64%), 06 May 2005 (8.14%), 06 Jun 2005 (10.64%), 06 Jul 2005 (-4.55%), 07 Jul 2005 (5.96%), 29 Jul 2005 (1.07%)
2004516 Feb 2004 (-3.84%), 08 Jun 2004 (-5.06%), 30 Aug 2004 (8.01%), 02 Nov 2004 (3.9%), 06 Dec 2004 (53.41%)
2003210 Jan 2003 (11.27%), 27 Feb 2003 (4.31%)
2002414 Mar 2002 (8.3%), 01 Apr 2002 (-8.13%), 03 Oct 2002 (-3.43%), 20 Nov 2002 (0.17%)
2001219 Apr 2001 (-6.78%), 14 Sep 2001 (-4.04%)
2000431 Jul 2000 (-4.42%), 21 Aug 2000 (-3.94%), 22 Aug 2000 (-0.35%), 06 Oct 2000 (-3.89%)



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