Study: Sell LICHSGFIN when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and RSI is below 50 and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell LICHSGFIN when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and RSI is below 50 and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell LICHSGFIN at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-11870.63179852.942283.924895.65-4053.24-6947.490.560.63-0.039-698.27
2-40220.111761135.292246.355601.76-4881.66-9962.070.460.25-0.11-2365.89
3-25704.59178947.063146.819744.23-5653.23-11129.930.560.49-0.055-1512.03
4-36966.91771041.186086.3218649.01-7957.11-20087.120.760.54-0.049-2174.52
5-49329.3178947.064354.3610599.72-9351.58-15711.720.470.41-0.077-2901.72
6-46215.531751229.4110880.0418688.98-8384.64-18942.941.30.54-0.053-2718.56
7-49921.41761135.2910766.6920362.62-10411.05-25354.361.030.56-0.049-2936.55
8-23201.231771041.1812449.8930588.24-11035.04-28009.581.130.79-0.018-1364.78
9-34182.75178947.069994.627057.18-12682.17-24975.80.790.7-0.028-2010.75
10-83969.911761135.2910367.8423488.49-13288.81-27589.550.780.43-0.072-4939.41
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 2 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
200trail-12.92-11646.882432112.516157.5344754.84-2862.83-3931.795.640.81-0.01-485.29
atrtrail-14.4-53420.06203171518821.142451.62-6463.73-10009.142.910.51-0.048-2671
atrnil23.8-61725.99204162014210.9917793.14-7410.62-12193.711.920.48-0.07-3086.3
200trail31.83-35688.712432112.58143.589804.35-2862.83-3931.792.840.41-0.081-1487.03
200nil31.88-38755.322432112.58143.589804.35-3008.86-3931.792.710.39-0.087-1614.8
atrtrail23.2-69916.76203171513322.217793.14-6463.73-10009.142.060.36-0.095-3495.84
atrnil35.32-83136.481921710.5322026.725316.01-7481.76-12193.712.940.35-0.096-4375.6
200trail21.68-40395.7525421165071.796536.23-2889.66-3931.791.760.33-0.11-1615.83
200nil21.72-42898.925421165071.796536.23-3008.86-3931.791.690.32-0.11-1715.96
atrtrail33.5-77134.29203171510916.3618737.4-6463.73-10009.141.690.3-0.11-3856.71

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.81. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 12.5%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.24%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
LICHSGFIN Performance, Profit Factor:0.806

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019308 May 2019 (-1.61%), 15 May 2019 (-1.91%), 08 Aug 2019 (-1.88%)
2018127 Aug 2018 (22.38%)
2017404 Jan 2017 (-1.68%), 10 Jan 2017 (-1.06%), 22 Sep 2017 (1.04%), 03 Oct 2017 (-1.02%)
2016121 Nov 2016 (-1.32%)
2015303 Jun 2015 (-1.49%), 05 Jun 2015 (0.82%), 27 Aug 2015 (-1.73%)
2013131 May 2013 (-1.3%)
2012322 May 2012 (-1.45%), 23 May 2012 (-1.3%), 07 Sep 2012 (-0.65%)
2011229 Aug 2011 (-1.59%), 24 Nov 2011 (-1.19%)
2005130 Jun 2005 (-1.91%)
2001420 Mar 2001 (-1.18%), 23 Mar 2001 (-1.48%), 17 Sep 2001 (-1.97%), 21 Sep 2001 (-1.6%)
1996115 Jan 1996 (-0.72%)



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