Study: Buy LT when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy LT when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy LT at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
112577.4445202544.444996.2622390.19-3493.91-9986.871.431.140.011279.5
212792.9645192642.226305.128759.06-4115.54-11516.221.531.120.0092284.29
3-13351.2745192642.225941.2519130.86-4855.19-17013.721.220.89-0.011-296.69
4-53512.745192642.226526.2228478.1-6827.34-27946.480.960.7-0.032-1189.17
5-50727.2445232251.116814.5530344.97-9430.09-30547.420.720.76-0.026-1127.27
6-16061.745192642.229130.4528684.72-7290.01-300211.250.92-0.0083-356.93
7-351.0245222348.897941.9629963.66-7611.92-21056.971.041-0.00019-7.8
8-4475.3545242153.337685.9626765.38-8997.06-24263.540.850.98-0.0024-99.45
9443.845212446.6710401.0833904.97-9082.46-22104.451.1510.00029.86
106467.1545222348.8911842.5445879.66-11046.46-30927.261.071.030.0025143.71

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.14. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 44.44%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.14%, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.011, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1112577.4445202544.444996.2622390.19-3493.91-9986.871.431.140.011279.5
atrtrail34.63-22976.652173532.699382.8132682.3-5213.84-18160.211.80.87-0.012-441.86
atrtrail24.39-29757.0754173731.489262.4123712.85-5059.95-18160.211.830.84-0.017-551.06
atrtrail-15.02-32296.5551173433.338276.236055.17-5088-18160.211.630.81-0.019-633.27
atrnil26.93-70757.5554144025.9316431.0134254.43-7519.79-20099.82.190.76-0.029-1310.32
atrnil38.76-1137135184315.6926154.7851381.65-7510.49-20099.83.480.65-0.042-2229.67

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.14. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 44.44%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.14%, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.011, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
LT Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:1.14

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019401 Feb 2019 (-1.3%), 20 Feb 2019 (0.59%), 09 Aug 2019 (-3.76%), 27 Aug 2019 (-0.91%)
2018120 Dec 2018 (-2.12%)
2017101 Jun 2017 (-0.49%)
2016329 Jan 2016 (1.85%), 30 Nov 2016 (0.4%), 27 Dec 2016 (-0.42%)
2015410 Sep 2015 (-0.77%), 05 Oct 2015 (0.27%), 19 Nov 2015 (0.58%), 18 Dec 2015 (0.23%)
2014327 Mar 2014 (0.35%), 23 Apr 2014 (-1.92%), 19 Aug 2014 (-0.96%)
2013206 Mar 2013 (2.2%), 30 Aug 2013 (0.43%)
2012115 Feb 2012 (-0.45%)
2011403 Feb 2011 (-3.71%), 27 Jun 2011 (0.81%), 30 Aug 2011 (0.02%), 28 Nov 2011 (-0.2%)
2010114 Jul 2010 (-0.53%)
2009309 Feb 2009 (3.58%), 13 Mar 2009 (1.9%), 18 May 2009 (9.05%)
2008705 Feb 2008 (-1.9%), 19 Feb 2008 (-2.58%), 25 Mar 2008 (-0.04%), 11 Apr 2008 (1.06%), 07 Jul 2008 (1.49%), 31 Oct 2008 (11.2%), 24 Nov 2008 (-2.89%)
2007323 Jul 2007 (1.72%), 26 Oct 2007 (10.2%), 15 Nov 2007 (-2.84%)
2006417 Jan 2006 (-1.33%), 05 Apr 2006 (-0.08%), 19 Jun 2006 (-4.49%), 15 Sep 2006 (2.02%)
2005303 Jun 2005 (-1.74%), 01 Jul 2005 (-1.11%), 04 Aug 2005 (-2.15%)
2004116 Dec 2004 (-4.99%)



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