Study: Sell LUPIN when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and below 50 SMA and below 20 SMA and RSI is below 50

home > technical-strategy > lupin > 10

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell LUPIN when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and below 50 SMA and below 20 SMA and RSI is below 50" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell LUPIN at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-13196.74179852.941709.654183.76-3572.95-10252.330.480.54-0.052-776.28
2-22757.781761135.294633.776752.01-4596.4-9387.21.010.55-0.062-1338.69
3-1193.45178947.065211.912688.34-4765.4-11841.581.090.97-0.0027-70.2
42981.191771041.185784.0516541.96-3750.71-11937.211.541.080.0067175.36
5-30249.671771041.184846.0515142.01-6417.21-27922.540.760.53-0.049-1779.39
6-62140.521771041.185620.3617974.09-10148.3-28448.480.550.39-0.085-3655.32
7-63858.251761135.295519.2314948.91-8815.79-21165.030.630.34-0.098-3756.37
8-75850.051761135.292906.896500.93-8481.03-21627.220.340.19-0.14-4461.77
9-73828.461741323.535263.9111338.7-7298.78-20336.280.720.22-0.13-4342.85
10-83071.011741323.538448.7917678.61-8989.71-19969.720.940.29-0.12-4886.53
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
200trail31.93-18842.022752218.528515.8411759.23-2791.87-3919.813.050.69-0.037-697.85
200nil32.04-19294.262652119.238515.8411759.23-2946.36-3978.572.890.69-0.038-742.09
atrtrail24.18-41370.372251722.7312252.4718003.95-6037.22-14448.042.030.6-0.052-1880.47
200trail21.75-29923.712862221.435460.427839.49-2849.37-3919.811.920.52-0.073-1068.7
200nil21.85-30375.952762122.225460.427839.49-3006.59-3978.571.820.52-0.075-1125.04
atrnil25.55-71941.71204162014648.0518003.95-8158.37-14448.041.80.45-0.091-3597.09
200trail-12.63-34815.252742314.816726.2512123.26-2683.49-3919.812.510.44-0.085-1289.45
atrnil311.58-95960.941921710.5321515.5627005.93-8176-14448.042.630.31-0.13-5050.58
atrtrail34.55-71479.632251722.736230.629355.81-6037.22-14448.041.030.3-0.13-3249.07
atrtrail-14.55-71479.632251722.736230.629355.81-6037.22-14448.041.030.3-0.13-3249.07

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.69. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
LUPIN Performance, Profit Factor:0.693

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019202 Jan 2019 (-0.9%), 09 Jan 2019 (-1.34%)
2018405 Oct 2018 (-1.43%), 11 Oct 2018 (-1.67%), 11 Dec 2018 (-1.32%), 24 Dec 2018 (-1.09%)
2015329 Jul 2015 (-1.89%), 16 Nov 2015 (-1.34%), 03 Dec 2015 (5.88%)
2011911 Feb 2011 (-1.08%), 21 Feb 2011 (-1.03%), 22 Feb 2011 (3.39%), 23 Jun 2011 (-1.39%), 09 Aug 2011 (-1.28%), 18 Aug 2011 (-1.57%), 23 Aug 2011 (-1.73%), 09 Dec 2011 (4.78%), 22 Dec 2011 (-1.87%)
2008124 Oct 2008 (-1.68%)
2007114 Aug 2007 (3.93%)
2006329 Jun 2006 (-1.28%), 11 Jul 2006 (-1.7%), 25 Sep 2006 (-1.17%)
2004201 Nov 2004 (-1.96%), 04 Nov 2004 (3.3%)
2002226 Jun 2002 (-1.0%), 27 Jun 2002 (-1.0%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play