Study: Buy LUPIN when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy LUPIN when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy LUPIN at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
170897.56116595750.864036.7930670.8-2934.61-17361.721.381.420.027611.19
2-10810.51116556147.414225.9532531.99-3987.5-35849.961.060.96-0.0034-93.19
3-28051.22116566048.284886.0934936.02-5027.87-39410.140.970.91-0.0077-241.82
4-36054.71116595750.865667.541011.49-6498.9-41471.80.870.9-0.0084-310.82
522203.23116575949.147757.1339448.28-7117.85-40927.751.091.050.0043191.41
614031.32116615552.597573.2136331.91-8144.27-42101.750.931.030.0026120.96
711994.53116605651.727750.2436847.95-8089.64-40603.230.961.030.0022103.4
862009.4116595750.869112.3949556.05-8344.23-42769.881.091.130.01534.56
9206060116655156.0310572.2751054.38-9434.08-43829.11.121.430.0311776.38
10283854116694759.4810874.2861108.96-9924.92-48905.671.11.610.0392447.02
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 4 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil38.89292137122368629.5124033.1750442.39-6663.45-15296.873.611.510.0392394.57
atrnil26.37171652128488037.514827.1133628.26-6750.62-15296.872.21.320.0291341.03
atrtrail-15.6340374.88131458634.3510884.7660581.53-5226.04-15296.872.081.090.0067308.21
atrtrail34.9929805.92132458734.0910804.6750442.39-5246.02-15296.872.061.070.0052225.8
atrtrail24.4719092.83133488536.099872.4433628.26-5350.4-15296.871.851.040.0039143.56

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.51. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 29.51%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.2%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.039, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
LUPIN Performance, Profit Factor:1.51

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019501 Apr 2019 (8.36%), 26 Jul 2019 (-2.75%), 07 Aug 2019 (-3.25%), 08 Aug 2019 (-3.49%), 05 Sep 2019 (-2.87%)
2018803 Apr 2018 (-2.71%), 28 May 2018 (-2.82%), 02 Aug 2018 (-2.76%), 16 Aug 2018 (9.95%), 17 Oct 2018 (-3.67%), 29 Oct 2018 (-3.61%), 16 Nov 2018 (-2.86%), 20 Dec 2018 (-2.99%)
2017525 Jan 2017 (-2.02%), 27 Jan 2017 (-2.06%), 28 Feb 2017 (-1.96%), 20 Mar 2017 (-1.54%), 03 Nov 2017 (-2.6%)
2016708 Sep 2016 (-2.32%), 10 Oct 2016 (-2.04%), 19 Oct 2016 (-2.22%), 08 Nov 2016 (-2.86%), 09 Nov 2016 (-3.47%), 25 Nov 2016 (-3.34%), 30 Dec 2016 (-2.32%)
2015513 Jan 2015 (-2.04%), 24 Mar 2015 (-2.56%), 18 Jun 2015 (9.24%), 21 Sep 2015 (9.54%), 16 Dec 2015 (-2.63%)
2014906 Feb 2014 (7.71%), 03 Apr 2014 (-2.34%), 22 Apr 2014 (-2.27%), 22 Jul 2014 (7.14%), 19 Aug 2014 (7.15%), 15 Sep 2014 (-2.24%), 16 Sep 2014 (-2.65%), 27 Oct 2014 (-2.42%), 07 Nov 2014 (-2.51%)
2013825 Jan 2013 (-1.98%), 22 Feb 2013 (-2.11%), 08 Mar 2013 (6.95%), 12 Apr 2013 (7.03%), 18 Jun 2013 (-2.73%), 03 Jul 2013 (8.56%), 02 Sep 2013 (12.37%), 02 Dec 2013 (-2.06%)
2012819 Jan 2012 (9.3%), 15 Feb 2012 (-3.31%), 03 Mar 2012 (10.46%), 02 Apr 2012 (-3.02%), 06 Jun 2012 (-3.12%), 31 Aug 2012 (-2.38%), 01 Oct 2012 (-2.56%), 30 Nov 2012 (-2.14%)
2011413 May 2011 (-3.1%), 29 Jun 2011 (9.19%), 25 Aug 2011 (-3.15%), 20 Oct 2011 (-2.75%)
20101001 Feb 2010 (-3.75%), 08 Mar 2010 (8.64%), 01 Jun 2010 (-2.69%), 25 Jun 2010 (-2.13%), 26 Jul 2010 (-2.15%), 04 Aug 2010 (-2.21%), 24 Aug 2010 (-2.31%), 06 Sep 2010 (9.09%), 10 Nov 2010 (-3.2%), 30 Dec 2010 (-3.34%)
2009920 Jan 2009 (-5.18%), 06 Feb 2009 (-4.66%), 19 Mar 2009 (-4.55%), 24 Mar 2009 (-4.52%), 16 Jul 2009 (13.41%), 10 Aug 2009 (-4.26%), 10 Sep 2009 (-4.36%), 09 Nov 2009 (15.02%), 18 Dec 2009 (-3.2%)
2008519 Feb 2008 (-5.75%), 15 May 2008 (12.15%), 22 Jul 2008 (-4.34%), 01 Oct 2008 (-3.69%), 03 Nov 2008 (-6.47%)
2007701 Feb 2007 (-3.57%), 22 Feb 2007 (-4.49%), 23 Feb 2007 (-4.77%), 22 Mar 2007 (-5.0%), 22 Jun 2007 (10.57%), 24 Oct 2007 (-4.43%), 05 Dec 2007 (11.56%)
2006716 Jan 2006 (8.43%), 31 Mar 2006 (11.69%), 21 Jun 2006 (-7.65%), 31 Jul 2006 (15.59%), 04 Oct 2006 (-3.86%), 30 Oct 2006 (-3.25%), 22 Nov 2006 (8.73%)
2005804 Apr 2005 (-3.94%), 25 Apr 2005 (-3.61%), 03 Jun 2005 (13.15%), 19 Jul 2005 (-3.49%), 11 Aug 2005 (12.92%), 05 Sep 2005 (-3.86%), 04 Oct 2005 (-3.62%), 05 Oct 2005 (-3.96%)
2004325 Mar 2004 (25.22%), 07 Sep 2004 (-3.61%), 27 Sep 2004 (-3.56%)
20031009 Jan 2003 (-4.39%), 26 Feb 2003 (-5.61%), 22 Mar 2003 (-4.99%), 07 Apr 2003 (14.83%), 28 May 2003 (13.76%), 26 Jun 2003 (13.63%), 27 Jun 2003 (14.51%), 25 Jul 2003 (19.27%), 22 Aug 2003 (-5.01%), 25 Aug 2003 (18.12%)
2002314 Jan 2002 (23.5%), 03 Apr 2002 (-4.58%), 04 Jul 2002 (-3.95%)
2001126 Nov 2001 (15.85%)



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