Study: Buy M&M when there is Bullish Centerline Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy M&M when there is Bullish Centerline Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy M&M at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
121663.371073704400.149799.43-3045.87-5308.061.443.370.0942166.34
215773.021073703879.398673.12-3794.23-5835.891.022.390.0711577.3
314158.461064605852.510477.15-5239.14-10183.431.121.680.0441415.85
49948.521064606552.2717455.34-7341.27-15170.70.891.340.022994.85
518121.891064607763.6714378.61-7115.03-13147.071.091.640.041812.19
627294.7210555012349.7121810.25-6890.76-13838.861.791.790.0492729.47
7-3829.3510464011759.8319193.02-8478.11-15734.61.390.92-0.007-382.93
8-33607.8710373013745.6215703.38-10692.1-33329.811.290.55-0.048-3360.79
912101.4910555016410.2734569.25-13989.97-25838.541.171.170.0141210.15
1034696.0610464024986.2550490.73-10874.82-17520.732.31.530.0343469.61

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 3.37. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 70%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.08%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.094, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
M&M Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:3.37

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2016118 Mar 2016 (0.44%)
2011211 Aug 2011 (1.56%), 29 Aug 2011 (0.66%)
2010128 May 2010 (4.9%)
2009124 Aug 2009 (-0.39%)
2007107 Nov 2007 (-1.53%)
2004205 May 2004 (4.4%), 04 Oct 2004 (0.22%)
2002104 Jan 2002 (3.22%)
2001103 Jan 2001 (-2.65%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1121663.371073704400.149799.43-3045.87-5308.061.443.370.0942166.34
atrnil39.470662.4410464028952.5935218.54-7524.65-10965.893.852.570.0797066.24
atrtrail24.838128.3610555013031.2623479.03-5405.59-10965.892.412.410.0683812.84
atrnil25.932058.9910464019301.7223479.03-7524.65-10965.892.571.710.0493205.9
atrtrail35.212552.281055507916.0420791.76-5405.59-10965.891.461.460.0291255.23
atrtrail-15.62244.291055505854.4410483.77-5405.59-10965.891.081.080.0067224.43

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 3.37. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 70%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.08%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.094, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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