Study: Buy MARICO when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy MARICO when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy MARICO at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
121031.76148657.143963.9613960.22-1779.99-5456.12.232.970.0761502.27
221528.85148657.143965.788462.93-1699.56-3264.372.333.110.0921537.78
321107.73148657.144907.3511878.53-3025.18-3978.841.622.160.071507.69
48214.25148657.143881.978000-3806.91-8329.141.021.360.028586.73
520236.611410471.434233.857331.63-5525.48-11150.290.771.920.0621445.47
69902.31146842.865978.037843.14-3245.73-9571.791.841.380.029707.31
7-2212.89146842.866512.199258.49-5160.75-19451.611.260.95-0.0046-158.06
8-931.461410471.434329.4810741.69-11056.56-30516.130.390.98-0.0015-66.53
9-11022.83148657.145609.1412994.71-9316-34903.230.60.8-0.016-787.34
10-7688.77148657.145471.0810835.98-8576.24-28838.710.640.85-0.012-549.2

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 2 trading days. Profit factor is 3.11. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 57.14%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.77%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.092, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
MARICO Performance, X=2, Profit Factor:3.11

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019123 May 2019 (1.32%)
2018207 May 2018 (-1.48%), 14 Dec 2018 (2.69%)
2017127 Mar 2017 (3.79%)
2015117 Dec 2015 (2.68%)
2014211 Feb 2014 (-1.63%), 23 May 2014 (0.32%)
2012108 Feb 2012 (-0.52%)
2011108 Apr 2011 (4.23%)
2009102 Mar 2009 (-0.85%)
2003109 Jul 2003 (-0.09%)
2002108 Mar 2002 (-0.52%)
1998221 May 1998 (0.42%), 08 Sep 1998 (0.42%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1221528.85148657.143965.788462.93-1699.56-3264.372.333.110.0921537.78
atrtrail36.2115654.56148657.144527.8812710.74-3428.08-6193.571.321.760.0471118.18
atrtrail24.817799.4158753.335574.8811475.49-3828.52-6231.121.461.660.0431186.63
atrtrail-16.369697.39148657.143783.237294.15-3428.08-6193.571.11.470.034692.67
atrnil26.6-8072.491551033.3311039.4615095.38-6326.98-8274.661.740.87-0.014-538.17
atrnil311.93-37498.911421214.2917676.922643.07-6071.06-8274.662.910.49-0.068-2678.49

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 3.11. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 57.14%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.77%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.092, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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