Study: Buy MCDOWELL-N when RSI is below 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy MCDOWELL-N when RSI is below 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy MCDOWELL-N at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
111316953332062.265769.7527698.81-3861.64-12108.91.492.470.0742135.26
269027.9153282552.838489.440339.21-6747.01-16380.51.261.410.0291302.41
373607.4953242945.2812175.2450610.58-7537.87-22502.351.621.340.0251388.82
485722.6253272650.9412019.8858168.25-9185.16-26827.621.311.360.0261617.41
57463753282552.8312211.234002.71-10691.06-37063.781.141.280.0231408.25
625107.3153262749.0613378.2835698.06-11952.89-36973.531.121.080.0069473.72
769481.9153282552.8312639.5541029.55-11377.02-31492.571.111.240.021310.98
864786.6853292454.7213472.2343260.25-13579.5-36981.230.991.20.0171222.39
915638153272650.9415976.1748261.57-10575.98-35878.121.511.570.042950.58
1013775553292454.7215008.7952359.95-12395.84-36739.091.211.460.0352599.15

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 2.47. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 62.26%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.07%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.074, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
MCDOWELL-N Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:2.47

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019307 Feb 2019 (-3.74%), 21 Feb 2019 (-0.61%), 12 Apr 2019 (0.59%)
2018416 Feb 2018 (-0.06%), 14 Mar 2018 (2.43%), 27 Jul 2018 (0.85%), 12 Oct 2018 (2.2%)
2017225 Apr 2017 (-1.67%), 13 Oct 2017 (-0.75%)
2016722 Jan 2016 (-2.08%), 08 Feb 2016 (-3.86%), 22 Feb 2016 (3.92%), 22 Apr 2016 (0.21%), 29 Jul 2016 (-2.84%), 22 Aug 2016 (3.14%), 28 Nov 2016 (-1.18%)
2015214 Sep 2015 (-1.54%), 24 Dec 2015 (1.06%)
2013207 Mar 2013 (3.06%), 02 Sep 2013 (0.41%)
2012306 Jan 2012 (0.47%), 15 Mar 2012 (0.98%), 08 Jun 2012 (-1.27%)
2011916 Feb 2011 (1.15%), 25 Mar 2011 (0.13%), 02 May 2011 (-0.51%), 29 Jun 2011 (2.31%), 23 Aug 2011 (-1.63%), 08 Sep 2011 (-1.87%), 04 Oct 2011 (1.07%), 11 Nov 2011 (3.51%), 08 Dec 2011 (-3.44%)
2010304 May 2010 (1.88%), 01 Jun 2010 (1.3%), 01 Dec 2010 (0.35%)
2009206 Feb 2009 (13.85%), 26 Feb 2009 (3.77%)
2008518 Feb 2008 (7.93%), 02 Apr 2008 (3.91%), 26 Jun 2008 (-6.05%), 11 Jul 2008 (-3.45%), 28 Oct 2008 (1.73%)
2007114 Mar 2007 (3.11%)
2006120 Jun 2006 (4.99%)
2004312 Feb 2004 (5.55%), 08 Jun 2004 (0.64%), 25 Jun 2004 (3.5%)
2003120 Feb 2003 (0.0%)
2002521 Feb 2002 (-1.86%), 15 Mar 2002 (10.03%), 04 Jun 2002 (4.93%), 20 Aug 2002 (-0.21%), 04 Oct 2002 (0.23%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1111316953332062.265769.7527698.81-3861.64-12108.91.492.470.0742135.26
atrtrail35.6616615456203635.7120002.9443679.84-6497.35-13514.473.081.710.0472967.04
atrtrail25.0714910656203635.7119150.5159022.19-6497.35-13514.472.951.640.0432662.6
atrtrail-16.513831756193733.9319631.5255453.63-6342.76-13514.473.11.590.0392469.94
atrnil310.3818115755183732.7331282.0943679.84-10322.17-29511.093.031.470.0383293.77
atrnil26.6813974956223439.2921711.0959022.19-9938.08-23585.922.181.410.0352495.52

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.47. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 62.26%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.07%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.074, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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