Study: Sell MOTHERSUMI when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell MOTHERSUMI when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell MOTHERSUMI at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-10524.4729151451.723188.626938.16-4168.12-11209.440.770.82-0.017-362.91
2-12370.8829131644.835169.3516826.41-4973.28-12389.381.040.84-0.014-426.58
3-3375.329141548.286657.3622719.2-6438.56-16106.191.030.97-0.003-116.39
4-14760.8129161355.177593.4721700.88-10481.26-32448.380.720.89-0.0098-508.99
5-54423.8329141548.287438.3921876.83-10570.75-26548.670.70.66-0.036-1876.68
6-89425.0829121741.388204.1223577.71-11051.44-34572.270.740.52-0.053-3083.62
7-88586.6929111837.9311383.7623926.16-11878.22-35988.20.960.59-0.046-3054.71
8-12116529101934.4811763.2421348.97-12568.26-44615.380.940.49-0.058-4178.09
9-92061.7729111837.9310417.9926600.99-11481.09-33333.330.910.55-0.046-3174.54
10-1594292982127.5910585.5624868.04-11624.46-45390.620.910.35-0.076-5497.56
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil27.61-92231.653172422.5824012.4444656.45-10846.61-23394.972.210.65-0.041-2975.21
atrtrail25.03-61644.1131102132.2610121.624348.13-7755.25-16970.991.310.62-0.042-1988.52
atrnil311.93-1335372932610.3446992.7966984.67-10558.28-23394.974.450.51-0.054-4604.73
atrtrail35.47-88668.3130921308243.5432040.09-7755.25-16970.991.060.46-0.067-2955.61
atrtrail-15.6-10769730921306129.2514870.86-7755.25-16970.990.790.34-0.1-3589.9

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.65. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
MOTHERSUMI Performance, Profit Factor:0.646

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018225 Jun 2018 (-3.37%), 18 Jul 2018 (-3.22%)
2016224 Jun 2016 (-4.27%), 11 Aug 2016 (-4.32%)
2015202 Feb 2015 (-3.36%), 22 Sep 2015 (-6.36%)
2013125 Jul 2013 (8.33%)
2012304 Jun 2012 (-3.85%), 20 Jun 2012 (-3.44%), 25 Jul 2012 (5.86%)
2011516 Jun 2011 (-4.41%), 20 Sep 2011 (10.75%), 21 Sep 2011 (12.17%), 09 Nov 2011 (10.68%), 19 Dec 2011 (-5.81%)
2008119 Nov 2008 (-11.7%)
2007305 Feb 2007 (-3.52%), 08 Jun 2007 (-6.27%), 08 Nov 2007 (-5.16%)
2006118 Oct 2006 (-3.93%)
2005122 Sep 2005 (-6.04%)
2003131 Jan 2003 (-5.05%)
2001129 May 2001 (-8.75%)
2000327 Jul 2000 (-4.48%), 06 Sep 2000 (-6.65%), 15 Nov 2000 (22.33%)
1998301 Apr 1998 (-7.71%), 27 Aug 1998 (-4.91%), 28 Aug 1998 (-5.09%)
1997214 Aug 1997 (13.92%), 26 Nov 1997 (-8.49%)



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