Study: Sell MOTHERSUMI when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell MOTHERSUMI when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell MOTHERSUMI at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-30094.471321115.384594.436389.26-3571.21-9436.441.290.23-0.12-2314.96
2-53026.781331023.085445.528644.4-6936.33-18816.680.790.24-0.12-4078.98
3-65103.62134930.776276.0514096.27-10023.09-26576.140.630.28-0.098-5007.97
4-51029135838.468273.812554.59-11549.75-41818.180.720.45-0.057-3925.31
5-104030135838.467314.9116110.02-17575.61-50909.090.420.26-0.093-8002.33
6-90421.25137653.856676.2515025.61-22859.16-49563.530.290.34-0.079-6955.48
7-87913.07136746.156217.3715253.27-17888.19-54122.210.350.3-0.086-6762.54
8-123770134930.772858.715021.83-15022.75-44907.860.190.085-0.14-9520.76
9-102725124833.334081.984912.66-14881.59-37439.380.270.14-0.14-8560.4
10-78791124833.333925.856746.99-11811.8-38312.320.330.17-0.12-6565.92
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
200trail31.38-25293.472442016.679236.1210145.86-3111.9-3978.52.970.59-0.049-1053.89
200nil31.38-25308.022442016.679236.1210145.86-3112.63-3978.52.970.59-0.049-1054.5
atrnil28.53-56214.66153122021142.429587.91-9970.15-18750.672.120.53-0.061-3747.64
200trail21.29-37608.312442016.676157.426763.9-3111.9-3978.51.980.4-0.096-1567.01
200nil21.29-37622.852442016.676157.426763.9-3112.63-3978.51.980.4-0.096-1567.62
atrtrail25.44-63211.73164122510037.3722187.93-8613.43-12596.021.170.39-0.092-3950.73
200trail-11.91-47553.72222209.097565.9212215.66-3134.28-3978.52.410.24-0.14-2161.53
atrtrail35.56-85603.6816412254439.395807.39-8613.43-12596.020.520.17-0.19-5350.23
atrtrail-15.56-85603.6816412254439.395807.39-8613.43-12596.020.520.17-0.19-5350.23
atrnil310.93-15135515015000-10090.36-18750.6700-0.61-10090.36

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.59. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
MOTHERSUMI Performance, Profit Factor:0.594

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019204 Nov 2019 (-1.99%), 05 Nov 2019 (-1.13%)
2018205 Apr 2018 (-1.83%), 10 Apr 2018 (-1.53%)
2016215 Nov 2016 (-1.4%), 22 Nov 2016 (-1.97%)
2012505 Mar 2012 (-1.57%), 15 Mar 2012 (4.71%), 17 Jul 2012 (-1.36%), 24 Jul 2012 (-1.13%), 25 Jul 2012 (-1.44%)
2011123 Aug 2011 (-1.8%)
2008505 Feb 2008 (4.71%), 06 Feb 2008 (-1.34%), 19 Feb 2008 (-1.99%), 20 Feb 2008 (3.99%), 22 Feb 2008 (-1.22%)
2006221 Jun 2006 (-1.89%), 23 Jun 2006 (5.07%)
2005308 Jul 2005 (-1.79%), 28 Oct 2005 (-1.53%), 09 Nov 2005 (-1.76%)
2002128 Jun 2002 (-1.45%)
2000127 Mar 2000 (-1.0%)



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