Study: Buy MUTHOOTFIN when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy MUTHOOTFIN when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy MUTHOOTFIN at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
152927.691810855.567597.920274.91-2881.42-7581.42.643.30.142940.43
263093.411810855.569662.7240893.47-4191.72-13742.492.312.880.113505.19
348587.5518995010068.8530213.73-4670.23-20787.192.162.160.0822699.31
488284.411881044.4416265.8634682.64-4184.25-15957.33.893.110.144904.69
51221441811761.1115070.4232030.65-6232.95-17051.372.423.80.176785.78
610963318995018571.7534712.64-6390.3-13475.652.912.910.146090.72
71063011881044.4420901.250881.23-6090.84-13064.453.432.750.125905.62
81222531881044.4421539.758937.82-5006.49-12275.324.33.440.136791.82
990965.541881044.4418390.5645952.07-5615.89-11793.073.272.620.115053.64
101437131810855.5618782.5854329.5-5514.15-10565.543.414.260.147984.03

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 10 trading days. Profit factor is 4.26. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 55.56%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 3.99%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
MUTHOOTFIN Performance, X=10, Profit Factor:4.26

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019229 Mar 2019 (0.02%), 02 Aug 2019 (-0.13%)
2018113 Mar 2018 (1.37%)
2016509 May 2016 (1.0%), 30 May 2016 (11.28%), 29 Jun 2016 (-4.41%), 27 Jul 2016 (26.76%), 08 Sep 2016 (0.07%)
2015120 Jan 2015 (-3.27%)
2014210 Feb 2014 (13.06%), 12 Sep 2014 (-2.91%)
2013230 Jan 2013 (-5.28%), 12 Aug 2013 (4.66%)
2012403 Aug 2012 (-1.68%), 05 Sep 2012 (27.16%), 12 Nov 2012 (-3.1%), 31 Dec 2012 (8.52%)
2011112 Oct 2011 (-1.26%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1101437131810855.5618782.5854329.5-5514.15-10565.543.414.260.147984.03
atrtrail34.411332732211115019196.5640567.36-7080.88-8815.422.712.710.146057.84
atrtrail-15.851171422010105018753.2140779.41-7039.02-8815.422.662.660.135857.09
atrtrail23.7399822.572211115016155.6527044.9-7080.88-8815.422.282.280.134537.39
atrnil36.4199848.832281436.3626248.3440567.36-7866.99-9902.823.341.910.0934538.58
atrnil2482553.0722101245.4517512.4427044.9-7714.28-9902.822.271.890.13752.41

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 4.26. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 55.56%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 3.99%, which is very good.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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