Study: Sell MUTHOOTFIN when RSI is above 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell MUTHOOTFIN when RSI is above 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell MUTHOOTFIN at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
123360.6736231363.892823.7516007.11-3198.89-6959.010.881.560.054648.91
23411.6536191752.784904.5527834.59-5280.87-25840.340.931.040.004394.77
3-25695.9235181751.435415.8219297.47-7245.93-23021.930.750.79-0.03-734.17
4-6033.4235171848.576154.9223743.89-6148.17-21544.3310.95-0.0071-172.38
5-20820.8335181751.435964.3226411.74-7539.91-32983.790.790.84-0.021-594.88
6627.0335201557.147227.4125700.31-9594.75-30838.890.7510.0005517.92
7-76467.4535191654.296245.126767.45-12195.27-39418.490.510.61-0.057-2184.78
8-10557435191654.296602.4230502.45-14438.75-58674.930.460.54-0.067-3016.4
9-11824635171848.576729.2533348.15-12924.65-60343.180.520.49-0.077-3378.47
10-15247035171848.576322.6638950.64-14441.98-60581.510.440.41-0.094-4356.3

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.56. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 63.89%, which is good. Average return per trade is 0.32%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.054, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Win loss ratio is less than 1 which is bad, avoid this strategy.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1123360.6736231363.892823.7516007.11-3198.89-6959.010.881.560.054648.91
atrtrail24.79-20920.5642132930.9511769.825110.91-5997.51-9966.381.960.88-0.018-498.11
atrtrail35.4-38002.5642132930.9510455.7937666.37-5997.51-9966.381.740.78-0.032-904.82
atrnil27.49-77572.7441103124.3917279.9525110.91-8076.52-11916.112.140.69-0.059-1892.02
atrtrail-15.9-56775.7842132930.959011.730572.65-5997.51-9966.381.50.67-0.054-1351.8
atrnil313.21-89233.463973217.9524926.437666.37-8241.2-11916.113.020.66-0.061-2288.04

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.56. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 63.89%, which is good. Average return per trade is 0.32%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.054, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Win loss ratio is less than 1 which is bad, avoid this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
MUTHOOTFIN Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:1.56

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019503 Jan 2019 (-1.25%), 26 Mar 2019 (0.33%), 12 Jun 2019 (-0.56%), 02 Jul 2019 (0.2%), 14 Oct 2019 (0.93%)
2018303 May 2018 (0.09%), 14 Aug 2018 (-0.28%), 28 Nov 2018 (1.49%)
2017502 Mar 2017 (1.98%), 26 Apr 2017 (-2.94%), 22 Jun 2017 (0.89%), 20 Jul 2017 (1.61%), 22 Sep 2017 (2.38%)
2016505 May 2016 (-0.76%), 25 May 2016 (-3.48%), 20 Jun 2016 (-3.14%), 05 Jul 2016 (3.08%), 17 Aug 2016 (-0.28%)
2015612 Jan 2015 (0.05%), 03 Feb 2015 (-0.79%), 25 Feb 2015 (-1.0%), 21 Jul 2015 (0.52%), 29 Oct 2015 (0.11%), 10 Dec 2015 (1.85%)
2014427 Jan 2014 (-2.91%), 28 Feb 2014 (1.18%), 29 May 2014 (1.69%), 09 Sep 2014 (0.53%)
2013416 Jan 2013 (1.27%), 06 Feb 2013 (2.32%), 16 Sep 2013 (8.0%), 18 Nov 2013 (1.21%)
2012312 Jul 2012 (0.22%), 12 Oct 2012 (0.57%), 22 Nov 2012 (-0.27%)
2011109 Aug 2011 (-3.14%)



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