Study: Buy NATIONALUM when there is bullish divergence in RSI and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy NATIONALUM when there is bullish divergence in RSI and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy NATIONALUM at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
138130.5716124754685.2812593.09-4523.21-7422.271.043.110.12383.16
241936.34169756.257432.0322394.37-3564.57-5897.442.082.680.0832621.02
339154.06169756.257864.4321971.83-4517.97-9743.591.742.240.0672447.13
451547.9616885012103.6224929.58-5660.13-11923.082.142.140.0673221.75
588695.79169756.2516066.7650236.97-7986.43-18333.332.012.590.0755543.49
61501991611568.7517629.7654788.73-8745.64-14743.592.024.430.119387.45
71509021611568.7516842.140704.23-6872.16-13166.142.455.390.149431.4
82036101613381.2516578.7743661.97-3971.32-5780.354.1718.090.212725.62
92146951613381.2517668.1149492.21-4996.78-7753.713.5415.320.1913418.44
102035281611568.7520305.3681971.83-3966.12-9350.065.1211.260.1312720.52

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 8 trading days. Profit factor is 18.09. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 81.25%, which is excellent. Average return per trade is 6.36%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
NATIONALUM Performance, X=8, Profit Factor:18.1

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019120 Feb 2019 (12.54%)
2015212 Jun 2015 (2.2%), 26 Aug 2015 (12.96%)
2013302 Apr 2013 (-2.89%), 16 Apr 2013 (3.42%), 19 Jun 2013 (3.89%)
2011312 May 2011 (-2.68%), 09 Aug 2011 (1.88%), 25 Nov 2011 (-0.39%)
2008202 Jul 2008 (11.52%), 03 Nov 2008 (19.26%)
2005129 Apr 2005 (1.87%)
2003124 Mar 2003 (2.5%)
2002122 Nov 2002 (21.83%)
2001118 Sep 2001 (5.88%)
2000114 Mar 2000 (8.0%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-182036101613381.2516578.7743661.97-3971.32-5780.354.1718.090.212725.62
atrnil316.161547401961331.5846973.46135716-9776.94-19257.614.82.220.0528144.24
atrtrail-16.0557965.4721111052.3811586.9541715-6949.1-16838.021.671.830.0462760.26
atrtrail35.8152348.1721111052.3811076.2937930.82-6949.1-16838.021.591.750.0442492.77
atrnil210.8985515.431971236.8429196.4490477.26-9904.97-19257.612.951.720.0414500.81
atrtrail25.3837813.0421111052.389754.9125287.21-6949.1-16838.021.41.540.0381800.62

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 18.09. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 81.25%, which is excellent. Average return per trade is 6.36%, which is very good.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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