Study: Buy NIFTY when RSI is oversold

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy NIFTY when RSI is oversold" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy NIFTY at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
113995.852115671.431825.054603.94-2229.98-5336.230.822.050.093666.47
217810.9521101147.623779.258169.76-1816.5-5311.592.081.890.077848.14
315543.921111052.383467.5210809.8-2259.88-5626.811.531.690.066740.19
431598.832112957.144937.2511631.56-3072.02-6164.781.612.140.111504.71
536647.822113861.95039.6310220.81-3608.42-6879.731.42.270.111745.13
635421.732112957.145051.210932.12-2799.18-6733.511.82.410.111686.75
737538.432112957.146268.3513029.92-4186.87-7066.381.520.0951787.54
862657.772114766.676568.9314815.8-4186.75-10250.91.573.140.152983.7
955400.992114766.676456.0114047.43-4997.6-14031.181.292.580.122638.14
1055897.792113861.96962.315330.02-4326.52-11991.361.612.610.122661.8

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 8 trading days. Profit factor is 3.14. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 66.67%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.49%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
NIFTY Performance, X=8, Profit Factor:3.14

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019129 Jul 2019 (-1.4%)
2018104 Oct 2018 (-0.14%)
2016318 Jan 2016 (2.89%), 11 Feb 2016 (1.91%), 15 Nov 2016 (0.07%)
2015424 Aug 2015 (0.18%), 07 Sep 2015 (5.6%), 10 Nov 2015 (0.85%), 09 Dec 2015 (2.92%)
2014116 Dec 2014 (2.22%)
2013426 Feb 2013 (3.2%), 09 Apr 2013 (6.17%), 13 Jun 2013 (-1.58%), 06 Aug 2013 (-2.54%)
2012111 May 2012 (-1.89%)
2011501 Feb 2011 (-1.98%), 20 Jun 2011 (7.41%), 05 Aug 2011 (-5.13%), 22 Aug 2011 (2.42%), 21 Nov 2011 (3.32%)
2010125 May 2010 (6.84%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1862657.772114766.676568.9314815.8-4186.75-10250.91.573.140.152983.7
atrtrail33.5858648.2543192444.196010.3613953.53-2314.53-4430.752.62.060.0851363.91
atrtrail22.9551491.0643192444.195633.679302.35-2314.53-4430.752.431.930.0871197.47
atrtrail-14.2346276.1843192444.195359.215041.31-2314.53-4430.752.321.830.0731076.19
atrnil24.0838088.2939172243.596582.579302.35-3355.25-4600.991.961.520.062976.62
atrnil36.1817115.7539112828.2110014.7513953.53-3323.09-4600.993.011.180.023438.87

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 3.14. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 66.67%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.49%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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