Study: Buy NMDC when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy NMDC when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy NMDC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
133609.3324141058.333430.5112851.41-1441.78-4888.892.383.330.111400.39
214929.9924101441.677084.2415421.69-3993.74-24696.161.771.270.024622.08
314745.0524131154.176620.5820481.93-6483.87-32085.561.021.210.019614.38
422353.252415962.56280.2624819.28-7983.41-46961.590.791.310.023931.39
59896.612415962.55276.1428353.41-7693.95-44336.410.691.140.011412.36
6-3300.62415962.56166.829638.55-10644.73-45405.930.580.97-0.0032-137.52
7-1063.3524101441.678432.6829799.2-6099.3-37044.241.380.99-0.0012-44.31
8-28681.8224101441.677952.9327951.81-7729.37-42489.061.030.73-0.029-1195.08
9-16618.4524131154.176637.5424658.63-9355.14-45308.70.710.84-0.016-692.44
10-20679.2324131154.176488.9923373.49-9548.73-38308.220.680.8-0.022-861.63

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 3.33. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 58.33%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.7%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
NMDC Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:3.33

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019425 Mar 2019 (-0.19%), 10 Apr 2019 (-0.58%), 29 May 2019 (0.29%), 16 Aug 2019 (-0.92%)
2018206 Feb 2018 (1.68%), 12 Sep 2018 (1.68%)
2017305 May 2017 (0.2%), 27 Oct 2017 (0.62%), 23 Nov 2017 (0.12%)
2016218 Mar 2016 (0.1%), 16 Jun 2016 (0.0%)
2014213 Mar 2014 (2.5%), 17 Oct 2014 (-0.09%)
2013128 Nov 2013 (6.43%)
2012329 Jun 2012 (5.25%), 26 Jul 2012 (1.34%), 02 Nov 2012 (1.5%)
2011520 Jan 2011 (-0.42%), 07 Feb 2011 (1.37%), 23 Feb 2011 (-0.99%), 02 May 2011 (-1.28%), 01 Jun 2011 (-2.44%)
2010129 Dec 2010 (-0.29%)
2009120 Apr 2009 (0.92%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1133609.3324141058.333430.5112851.41-1441.78-4888.892.383.330.111400.39
200trail22.1121226.636142238.895838.617904.29-2750.63-3953.822.121.350.04589.63
200nil33.3417870.913292328.129538.6511856.43-2955.52-3953.823.231.260.029558.47
atrtrail25.3513281.7626121446.156756.8818301.9-4842.91-10122.781.41.20.021510.84
200nil22.2912050.534122235.296464.577904.29-2978.38-3987.542.171.180.023354.43
200trail32.699151.0335112431.436481.5911856.43-2589.43-3953.822.51.150.016261.46
atrnil28.2413975.5259163613272.6618301.9-6592.4-14894.022.011.130.017559.02
200trail-13.295706.1435102528.576915.7324240.96-2538.05-3953.822.721.090.0085163.03
atrtrail-16-7633.5826121446.155013.9422719.49-4842.91-10122.781.040.89-0.013-293.6
atrtrail35.81-9533.4926121446.154855.6120819.57-4842.91-10122.7810.86-0.017-366.67
atrnil311.48-40127255202018761.7720819.57-6696.79-14894.022.80.7-0.046-1605.08

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 3.33. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 58.33%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.7%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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