Study: Sell OIL when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and below 50 SMA and below 20 SMA and RSI is below 50

home > technical-strategy > oil > 10

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell OIL when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and below 50 SMA and below 20 SMA and RSI is below 50" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell OIL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-1982157846.673079.9610162.28-2942.71-8923.081.050.92-0.0099-132.13
2-12548.651551033.333541.2111013.57-3025.47-8102.561.170.59-0.063-836.58
3-14152.011551033.333234.044806.24-3032.22-9538.461.070.53-0.078-943.47
4-19922.791569403493.48096.7-4542.58-9169.230.770.51-0.088-1328.19
5-4312.2157846.673907.9410746.52-3958.47-8041.030.990.86-0.019-287.48
6-3944.52157846.674587.2113582.3-4506.88-10666.671.020.89-0.014-262.97
74064.111569406388.6714791-3807.55-13025.641.681.120.013270.94
88361.58157846.676741.420524.54-4853.53-18235.91.391.220.021557.44
914967.15158753.336559.6818417.08-5358.62-19671.791.221.40.038997.81
109408.47157846.677089.2318967.19-5027.01-17374.361.411.230.024627.23
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 4 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
200trail33.04-12163.9625520208203.1611110.92-2658.99-3918.373.090.77-0.033-486.56
200nil33.17-16380.222442016.6710180.4111110.92-2855.09-3918.373.570.71-0.044-682.51
200trail22.58-16454.722662023.086344.887407.28-2726.2-3918.372.330.7-0.052-632.87
200nil22.58-20883.152662023.086344.887407.28-2947.62-3918.372.150.65-0.064-803.2
200trail-13.52-24106.725520205814.6114535.31-2658.99-3918.372.190.55-0.076-964.27
atrtrail34.67-32538.952141719.058994.2914494.85-4030.36-7530.082.230.53-0.087-1549.47
atrtrail24.14-33694.052141719.058705.5110117.39-4030.36-7530.082.160.51-0.097-1604.48
atrtrail-14.95-37679.892141719.057709.0515441.06-4030.36-7530.081.910.45-0.11-1794.28
atrnil24.79-46579.871941521.058556.5610117.39-5387.07-7530.081.590.42-0.13-2451.57
atrnil35.47-49701.521931615.7912054.4313601.13-5366.55-7530.082.250.42-0.13-2615.87

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.77. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 20%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.24%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
OIL Performance, Profit Factor:0.771

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018408 Mar 2018 (-1.32%), 20 Mar 2018 (-1.96%), 03 Apr 2018 (-1.07%), 11 Apr 2018 (-0.45%)
2017211 May 2017 (-1.16%), 18 May 2017 (4.22%)
2015105 Jan 2015 (5.35%)
2014118 Dec 2014 (-1.04%)
2013122 Mar 2013 (-1.76%)
2012810 Aug 2012 (-1.58%), 16 Aug 2012 (-1.2%), 21 Aug 2012 (-1.31%), 17 Sep 2012 (-1.31%), 21 Sep 2012 (-0.98%), 03 Oct 2012 (-1.24%), 18 Oct 2012 (-1.52%), 02 Nov 2012 (5.56%)
2011823 Sep 2011 (-1.12%), 26 Sep 2011 (-1.77%), 05 Oct 2011 (-1.41%), 11 Oct 2011 (-1.56%), 14 Oct 2011 (0.15%), 24 Oct 2011 (-1.74%), 31 Oct 2011 (-1.08%), 11 Nov 2011 (5.24%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play