Study: Sell ONGC when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and below 50 SMA and below 20 SMA and RSI is below 50 and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell ONGC when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and below 50 SMA and below 20 SMA and RSI is below 50 and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell ONGC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
19646.291055505351.389227.32-3422.12-5194.11.561.560.04964.63
23676.031037306615.857497.81-2310.22-6243.782.861.230.017367.6
35844.591055504919.28524.22-3750.28-5877.371.311.310.025584.46
4-8520.091046406373.8213697.65-5669.23-9148.631.120.75-0.026-852.01
53587.441037309983.121966.41-3765.98-10468.432.651.140.0089358.74
610658.681055507349.1728094.06-5217.43-14907.761.411.410.0211065.87
723872.5810464011554.4522342.67-3724.2-7450.653.12.070.0542387.26
846681.591073709522.224922.73-6657.94-13956.071.433.340.0854668.16
946466.781073709864.8124940.65-7528.96-12510.431.313.060.0844646.68
1052541.6110737010043.4222674.13-5920.78-10063.941.73.960.115254.16
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 4 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
ONGC Performance, X=10, Profit Factor:3.96

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018221 Mar 2018 (-0.8%), 06 Apr 2018 (-3.05%)
2017119 Apr 2017 (-5.03%)
2012130 Oct 2012 (5.99%)
2010102 Feb 2010 (0.19%)
2008128 Jan 2008 (5.83%)
2007102 Mar 2007 (4.51%)
2006131 May 2006 (11.34%)
2004119 May 2004 (6.59%)
2003102 Apr 2003 (0.7%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil212.38-16518.811331023.0817586.8530325.84-6927.94-16579.292.540.76-0.022-1270.68
200trail-12.47-14219.441731417.6510243.9517402.89-3210.81-3994.813.190.68-0.03-836.44
200trail21.41-19256.491741323.535885.317817.71-3292.13-3994.811.790.55-0.059-1132.73
200nil21.41-19706.791741323.535885.317817.71-3326.77-3994.811.770.54-0.06-1159.22
atrtrail33.43-29371.721421214.2912449.814174.55-4522.61-10281.422.750.46-0.066-2097.98
200trail32.06-25134.831731417.656605.498512.78-3210.81-3994.812.060.44-0.077-1478.52
atrnil317.15-50790.221321115.3816826.0419477.52-7676.57-16579.292.190.4-0.08-3906.94
atrtrail-13.5-33236.761421214.2910517.2810725.04-4522.61-10281.422.330.39-0.083-2374.05
atrtrail23.21-34096.571421214.2910087.3710725.04-4522.61-10281.422.230.37-0.087-2435.47
200nil32.24-32756.931721511.768348.158512.78-3296.88-3994.812.530.34-0.1-1926.88

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.76. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 23.08%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.64%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ONGC Performance, Profit Factor:0.762

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018221 Mar 2018 (-2.46%), 04 Apr 2018 (-2.32%)
2017319 Apr 2017 (-1.62%), 20 Apr 2017 (-1.71%), 26 Apr 2017 (-1.57%)
2012130 Oct 2012 (4.72%)
2010202 Feb 2010 (-2.81%), 08 Feb 2010 (6.49%)
2008128 Jan 2008 (-8.29%)
2007102 Mar 2007 (-4.41%)
2006131 May 2006 (15.16%)
2004119 May 2004 (-7.32%)
2003102 Apr 2003 (-2.13%)



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