Study: Buy ONGC when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

home > technical-strategy > ongc > 31

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ONGC when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ONGC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
182377.0672324044.446005.6840014.56-2745.12-9526.542.191.750.0341144.13
251448.5972383452.786607.7851847.81-5871.97-20717.361.131.260.015714.56
342271.1672393354.177787.5453886.76-7922.51-26653.430.981.160.01587.1
448314.2472373551.398083.2342417.62-7164.72-26266.851.131.190.013671.03
53359.3972333945.839372.1248607.32-7844.11-26057.881.191.010.000846.66
64931.4772373551.399275.9957236.48-9665.14-29612.630.961.010.001168.49
7-25007.972373551.398744.5741798.65-9958.77-30071.740.880.93-0.0058-347.33
8-87783.7572314143.068858.6735026.4-8839.09-38450.510.76-0.021-1219.22
9-57118.5872353748.618821.3949299.11-9888.3-34664.520.890.84-0.013-793.31
10-85762.3972353748.618865.4749189.88-10704.16-33572.450.830.78-0.018-1191.14

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.75. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 44.44%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.57%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.034, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1182377.0672324044.446005.6840014.56-2745.12-9526.542.191.750.0341144.13
atrtrail34.4612002782344841.4612580.0937427.13-6410.33-15310.961.961.390.0251463.75
atrnil3811809881255630.8622574.0243876.21-7968.8-17915.822.831.260.021458
atrnil25.6972061.9487335437.9314974.6129250.81-7816.67-17915.821.921.170.014828.3
atrtrail23.8252179.3787345339.0811166.0224951.42-6178.59-15310.961.811.160.012599.76
atrtrail-14.9211210.97803248409761.4139700.12-6274.05-15310.961.561.040.0029140.14

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.75. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 44.44%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.57%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.034, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ONGC Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:1.75

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019126 Aug 2019 (1.49%)
2018423 Jan 2018 (1.69%), 26 Mar 2018 (0.39%), 05 Jul 2018 (-0.61%), 21 Aug 2018 (1.0%)
2017328 Apr 2017 (3.14%), 05 Jul 2017 (-0.68%), 04 Sep 2017 (0.62%)
2016429 Jan 2016 (-0.53%), 22 Feb 2016 (0.09%), 08 Sep 2016 (3.51%), 04 Oct 2016 (-2.52%)
2015417 Mar 2015 (-1.59%), 07 Aug 2015 (-2.76%), 09 Sep 2015 (-1.52%), 17 Dec 2015 (-0.69%)
2014327 Mar 2014 (-0.48%), 05 Jun 2014 (11.09%), 22 Dec 2014 (-1.54%)
2013227 Jun 2013 (3.39%), 23 Aug 2013 (-3.13%)
2012324 May 2012 (-0.25%), 05 Oct 2012 (-1.78%), 29 Nov 2012 (4.39%)
2011331 Jan 2011 (-0.09%), 15 Feb 2011 (-1.03%), 01 Mar 2011 (-1.51%)
2010526 Mar 2010 (1.22%), 28 Apr 2010 (0.65%), 25 Jun 2010 (3.28%), 04 Nov 2010 (0.81%), 02 Dec 2010 (0.43%)
2009324 Aug 2009 (-1.02%), 05 Oct 2009 (1.29%), 13 Nov 2009 (1.31%)
2008306 Feb 2008 (-4.1%), 05 Jun 2008 (-1.9%), 04 Nov 2008 (-0.68%)
2007315 Mar 2007 (-1.76%), 29 Aug 2007 (0.86%), 29 Oct 2007 (-1.45%)
2006513 Mar 2006 (0.99%), 20 Apr 2006 (-0.42%), 08 May 2006 (4.39%), 19 Jun 2006 (-0.62%), 16 Oct 2006 (-0.43%)
2005628 Feb 2005 (1.65%), 06 Apr 2005 (-2.17%), 22 Jun 2005 (-0.33%), 26 Jul 2005 (-0.23%), 27 Sep 2005 (2.72%), 08 Nov 2005 (-0.99%)
2004107 Jun 2004 (-0.48%)
2002428 Mar 2002 (20.01%), 15 May 2002 (5.45%), 14 Aug 2002 (1.39%), 06 Sep 2002 (-4.51%)
2001104 Jan 2001 (-2.25%)
2000328 Apr 2000 (-1.69%), 29 Aug 2000 (2.01%), 19 Oct 2000 (0.0%)
1999417 Feb 1999 (-0.84%), 18 Mar 1999 (-0.48%), 10 Jun 1999 (-4.76%), 16 Aug 1999 (-1.84%)
1998204 Feb 1998 (-0.29%), 26 Jun 1998 (-0.97%)
1997323 Apr 1997 (6.1%), 10 Sep 1997 (0.12%), 21 Nov 1997 (3.98%)
1996217 Oct 1996 (5.39%), 12 Dec 1996 (1.24%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play