Study: Buy ONGC when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ONGC when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ONGC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
110286442231954.767083.5640014.56-3160.94-9526.542.242.710.062449.14
264618.542241857.147467.3551847.81-6366.55-20717.361.171.560.0281538.54
353049.3742222052.389361.153886.76-7644.74-26653.431.221.350.0211263.08
427861.95422121508337.8842417.62-7011.12-26266.851.191.190.012663.38
5-5234.0542182442.869593.1748607.32-7412.96-26057.881.290.97-0.0021-124.62
6-25093.0442202247.629746.5957236.48-10001.13-29612.630.970.89-0.0086-597.45
7-49860.3742192345.248681.1341798.65-9339.21-30071.740.930.77-0.02-1187.15
8-11093342172540.488522.2635026.4-10232.47-38450.50.830.57-0.042-2641.27
9-71800.1242202247.629215.1949299.11-11641.08-34664.520.790.72-0.025-1709.53
10-11558742202247.628160.0849189.88-12672.19-33572.450.640.59-0.039-2752.07

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 2.71. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 54.76%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.22%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.06, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
ONGC Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:2.71

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018223 Jan 2018 (1.69%), 21 Aug 2018 (1.0%)
2017228 Apr 2017 (3.14%), 04 Sep 2017 (0.62%)
2016429 Jan 2016 (-0.53%), 22 Feb 2016 (0.09%), 08 Sep 2016 (3.51%), 04 Oct 2016 (-2.52%)
2014227 Mar 2014 (-0.48%), 05 Jun 2014 (11.09%)
2013227 Jun 2013 (3.39%), 05 Sep 2013 (6.74%)
2012324 May 2012 (-0.25%), 05 Oct 2012 (-1.78%), 30 Nov 2012 (-1.06%)
2010429 Mar 2010 (0.39%), 25 Jun 2010 (3.28%), 04 Nov 2010 (0.81%), 02 Dec 2010 (0.43%)
2009324 Aug 2009 (-1.02%), 05 Oct 2009 (1.29%), 13 Nov 2009 (1.31%)
2008105 Jun 2008 (-1.9%)
2007129 Oct 2007 (-1.45%)
2006413 Mar 2006 (0.99%), 20 Apr 2006 (-0.42%), 08 May 2006 (4.39%), 16 Oct 2006 (-0.43%)
2005528 Feb 2005 (1.65%), 06 Apr 2005 (-2.17%), 22 Jun 2005 (-0.33%), 26 Jul 2005 (-0.23%), 27 Sep 2005 (2.72%)
2002428 Mar 2002 (20.01%), 15 May 2002 (5.45%), 14 Aug 2002 (1.39%), 06 Sep 2002 (-4.51%)
2001104 Jan 2001 (-2.25%)
1999210 Jun 1999 (-4.76%), 16 Aug 1999 (-1.84%)
1997223 Apr 1997 (6.1%), 24 Nov 1997 (-2.1%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1110286442231954.767083.5640014.56-3160.94-9526.542.242.710.062449.14
atrtrail33.7793800.7947212644.6811356.8729917.22-5565.13-10913.042.041.650.0381995.76
atrtrail23.0884514.0251213041.1811792.5822688.58-5437.67-10913.042.171.520.0351657.14
atrtrail-14.3138117.6145192642.229277.3439700.12-5313.53-10913.041.751.280.018847.06
atrnil24.0856007.9451193237.2514024.7522688.58-6576.95-10913.042.131.270.0221098.19
atrnil39.0918740.9446123426.0920739.7330677.28-6768.7-11344.293.061.080.0066407.41

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.71. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 54.76%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.22%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.06, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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