Study: Buy ONGC when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ONGC when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ONGC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 5 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.83. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 23.81%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.46%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ONGC Performance, Profit Factor:0.83

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019107 May 2019 (-2.41%)
2017123 Nov 2017 (-2.71%)
2016111 Aug 2016 (6.81%)
2014220 Mar 2014 (-2.83%), 21 Mar 2014 (9.06%)
2013122 Jan 2013 (-3.06%)
2012328 Feb 2012 (-3.23%), 25 Jul 2012 (-2.33%), 26 Jul 2012 (-2.52%)
2010106 Jul 2010 (-2.93%)
2009121 May 2009 (-5.99%)
2008125 Sep 2008 (-5.11%)
2007115 Oct 2007 (-4.09%)
2006229 Sep 2006 (-2.56%), 13 Nov 2006 (-2.65%)
2004127 Oct 2004 (6.97%)
2002114 Feb 2002 (-5.6%)
2001119 Jan 2001 (11.68%)
1999115 Jul 1999 (12.25%)
1997227 Mar 1997 (-3.72%), 31 Mar 1997 (-4.63%)

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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