Study: Sell ORIENTBANK when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell ORIENTBANK when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell ORIENTBANK at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-43498.041761135.294061.0310972.57-6169.47-15686.270.660.36-0.081-2558.71
2-14254.931761135.295188.514108.22-4125.99-13249.211.260.69-0.029-838.53
310658.831771041.1810306.226773.55-6148.46-18927.441.681.170.012626.99
440499.661710758.829700.8332264.53-8072.66-14330.781.21.720.0412382.33
513067.51771041.1812334.5824769.54-7327.46-27039.211.681.180.013768.68
645645.36178947.0614313.0227431.42-7650.98-23073.461.871.660.0412685.02
769186.36179852.9413894.3227680.8-6982.81-17936.011.992.240.0664069.79
879418.41178947.0617747.1426433.92-6950.97-25506.992.552.270.0694671.67
982177.86179852.9416950.0337406.48-8796.55-19918.881.932.170.0644833.99
101041491711664.7114700.9436159.6-9593.63-19621.961.532.810.0836126.39
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
ORIENTBANK Performance, X=10, Profit Factor:2.81

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017127 Oct 2017 (4.53%)
2016201 Jul 2016 (-6.62%), 22 Jul 2016 (-9.81%)
2013208 Mar 2013 (14.26%), 22 Apr 2013 (9.45%)
2012207 Feb 2012 (3.8%), 09 Jul 2012 (8.72%)
2010207 Dec 2010 (-5.8%), 30 Dec 2010 (11.53%)
2004224 May 2004 (0.79%), 08 Jun 2004 (8.14%)
2002301 Oct 2002 (-0.25%), 17 Oct 2002 (0.86%), 13 Nov 2002 (-3.73%)
2000228 Feb 2000 (18.08%), 15 Nov 2000 (-2.56%)
1998125 Feb 1998 (0.69%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil25.67-8314.151861233.3318785.1238127.74-10085.41-22137.641.860.93-0.0063-461.9
200trail-12.39-5088.182341917.3912300.3121236.07-2857.34-3980.394.30.91-0.0072-221.23
atrnil38.33-28214.261851327.7822374.928257.45-10776.06-22137.642.080.8-0.02-1567.46
200nil31.91-13321.522241818.1810208.8711292.74-3008.72-3980.393.390.75-0.024-605.52
200trail31.83-13453.952341917.3910208.8711292.74-2857.34-3980.393.570.75-0.024-584.95
atrtrail24.39-29362.311851327.7812988.8518838.3-7254.35-10919.071.790.69-0.033-1631.24
atrtrail35.39-32902.691851327.7812280.7718259.16-7254.35-10919.071.690.65-0.039-1827.93
200nil21.64-18222.172251722.736606.227528.49-3014.9-3980.392.190.64-0.042-828.28
200trail21.57-19045.42351821.746606.227528.49-2893.14-3980.392.280.63-0.043-828.06
atrtrail-15.44-39527.131851327.7810955.8915337.86-7254.35-10919.071.510.58-0.05-2195.95

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.93. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 33.33%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.23%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ORIENTBANK Performance, Profit Factor:0.931

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017127 Oct 2017 (-5.17%)
2016201 Jul 2016 (-3.62%), 22 Jul 2016 (-4.39%)
2013208 Mar 2013 (8.2%), 22 Apr 2013 (9.42%)
2012207 Feb 2012 (-3.86%), 09 Jul 2012 (6.09%)
2010207 Dec 2010 (-7.32%), 30 Dec 2010 (9.08%)
2004224 May 2004 (-11.07%), 08 Jun 2004 (19.06%)
2002301 Oct 2002 (-2.3%), 14 Oct 2002 (-4.86%), 13 Nov 2002 (-4.95%)
2000328 Feb 2000 (-4.63%), 15 Nov 2000 (-3.74%), 21 Nov 2000 (-4.61%)
1998125 Feb 1998 (4.51%)



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