Study: Buy PAGEIND when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy PAGEIND when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy PAGEIND at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
119189.42102544852.943920.0630930.69-4010.29-21339.60.981.10.009188.13
2144490102544852.945868.9631948.91-3592.37-21033.941.631.840.0591416.57
367856.73102505249.026784.3130153.63-5218.44-200001.31.250.023665.26
4107415102525050.987329.7625428.72-5474.66-17286.081.341.390.0351053.09
5203416102554753.928218.936141.23-5289.87-20816.891.551.820.0611994.27
6199652102594357.848165.1137821.96-6560.22-26987.971.241.710.0561957.37
7171584102584456.868279.4829932.02-7014.23-25372.251.181.560.0471682.2
8217526102584456.869243.229630.22-7240.45-26169.121.281.680.0572132.6
9270424102554753.9210769.7930834.18-6849.24-30011.621.571.840.0672651.22
10319231102564654.911752.0333878.17-7367.03-26415.131.61.940.0733129.71
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail24.85171617119497041.1812366.7433877.83-6205.04-21457.691.991.40.041442.16
atrnil310.14186672107386935.5120595.2150816.74-8636.89-23090.732.381.310.0341744.6
atrnil27.3140727115506543.4814162.7836366.57-8729.42-23090.731.621.250.0291223.71
atrtrail35.7769361.82114447038.611663.4735940.63-6340.44-21457.691.841.160.016608.44
atrtrail-16.44-24706.22111426937.849816.0830425.81-6333.07-21457.691.550.94-0.0066-222.58

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.4. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 41.18%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.72%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.04, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
PAGEIND Performance, Profit Factor:1.4

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019611 Jan 2019 (-2.19%), 01 Mar 2019 (7.19%), 17 May 2019 (-2.99%), 11 Jun 2019 (-1.83%), 11 Jul 2019 (-2.79%), 16 Aug 2019 (-2.73%)
2018712 Feb 2018 (-0.76%), 27 Mar 2018 (-1.76%), 28 May 2018 (1.01%), 01 Aug 2018 (-2.26%), 02 Aug 2018 (-1.67%), 26 Oct 2018 (-1.72%), 17 Dec 2018 (-3.31%)
2017708 Mar 2017 (1.01%), 27 Apr 2017 (4.6%), 06 Jun 2017 (6.29%), 03 Jul 2017 (-1.84%), 17 Aug 2017 (7.14%), 23 Oct 2017 (4.98%), 18 Dec 2017 (-0.48%)
20161002 Mar 2016 (9.03%), 30 May 2016 (-1.32%), 30 Jun 2016 (-2.36%), 25 Jul 2016 (-2.21%), 28 Jul 2016 (4.38%), 29 Jul 2016 (4.68%), 29 Aug 2016 (1.62%), 03 Oct 2016 (-0.27%), 02 Dec 2016 (9.46%), 30 Dec 2016 (8.25%)
2015903 Feb 2015 (-3.24%), 03 Mar 2015 (6.26%), 04 May 2015 (-3.54%), 15 May 2015 (7.53%), 26 Jun 2015 (-1.91%), 06 Aug 2015 (-2.35%), 02 Sep 2015 (-4.42%), 24 Sep 2015 (8.14%), 26 Nov 2015 (-1.83%)
2014909 Jan 2014 (-1.01%), 28 Feb 2014 (5.62%), 03 Mar 2014 (5.94%), 30 Apr 2014 (-1.6%), 28 May 2014 (5.63%), 19 Jun 2014 (5.91%), 10 Sep 2014 (4.9%), 10 Nov 2014 (-4.25%), 04 Dec 2014 (5.97%)
20131201 Jan 2013 (4.31%), 18 Jan 2013 (-2.26%), 21 Jan 2013 (-1.76%), 19 Feb 2013 (-1.78%), 28 Mar 2013 (5.56%), 03 May 2013 (6.17%), 30 May 2013 (-3.77%), 03 Jul 2013 (7.1%), 12 Sep 2013 (6.34%), 05 Nov 2013 (4.19%), 06 Nov 2013 (-2.34%), 27 Nov 2013 (5.43%)
2012804 Jan 2012 (7.04%), 05 Mar 2012 (-0.03%), 29 May 2012 (-3.18%), 02 Jul 2012 (1.31%), 30 Jul 2012 (5.07%), 11 Sep 2012 (5.7%), 05 Oct 2012 (-0.32%), 03 Dec 2012 (-2.32%)
20111114 Feb 2011 (-1.62%), 10 Mar 2011 (-4.71%), 28 Mar 2011 (9.3%), 12 May 2011 (-2.18%), 03 Jun 2011 (-3.74%), 10 Jun 2011 (6.92%), 20 Jul 2011 (6.96%), 21 Jul 2011 (8.74%), 11 Aug 2011 (-0.37%), 28 Oct 2011 (6.61%), 30 Nov 2011 (0.83%)
20101304 Mar 2010 (-2.68%), 23 Mar 2010 (-2.09%), 03 May 2010 (-3.78%), 10 May 2010 (-3.69%), 21 May 2010 (-1.02%), 13 Jul 2010 (-1.36%), 30 Jul 2010 (6.7%), 02 Aug 2010 (-3.42%), 07 Oct 2010 (-0.8%), 26 Oct 2010 (7.51%), 01 Dec 2010 (-3.88%), 30 Dec 2010 (-4.18%), 31 Dec 2010 (-0.52%)
20091330 Jan 2009 (16.94%), 02 Feb 2009 (2.71%), 26 Feb 2009 (-6.7%), 16 Mar 2009 (11.98%), 05 Jun 2009 (-3.92%), 27 Jul 2009 (-4.48%), 26 Aug 2009 (-3.57%), 27 Aug 2009 (1.82%), 17 Oct 2009 (-3.13%), 20 Oct 2009 (-3.21%), 03 Nov 2009 (9.93%), 10 Dec 2009 (5.19%), 11 Dec 2009 (5.7%)
20081306 Feb 2008 (-9.11%), 28 Feb 2008 (-5.88%), 03 Apr 2008 (-6.89%), 30 May 2008 (-5.32%), 16 Jun 2008 (-3.75%), 09 Jul 2008 (-6.0%), 31 Jul 2008 (-4.14%), 26 Aug 2008 (11.41%), 27 Aug 2008 (-0.06%), 22 Oct 2008 (-10.14%), 23 Oct 2008 (-5.18%), 02 Dec 2008 (-10.73%), 10 Dec 2008 (-5.71%)
2007105 Dec 2007 (-4.8%)



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