Study: Buy PAGEIND when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy PAGEIND when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy PAGEIND at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
172425.4547252253.195351.5730930.69-2789.27-12612.921.922.180.0711540.97
210639847252253.196596.9331948.91-2660.22-8187.942.482.820.092263.79
336546.6947242351.065975.7930153.63-4646.62-15061.071.291.340.028777.59
443283.8547212644.688167.6226425.52-4932.16-17192.171.661.340.029920.93
554349.147242351.067311.3621043.23-5266.24-19173.731.391.450.0381156.36
660622.2947281959.576875.8721663.34-6942.22-26987.970.991.460.0391289.84
771152.0447281959.576853.1122992.04-6354.47-25372.251.081.590.0491513.87
892965.4947272057.458388.0421748.79-6675.59-26169.121.261.70.0571977.99
913078747262155.329978.4430207.22-6126.31-30011.621.632.020.0742782.7
1017370647252253.1912427.7133878.17-6226.68-26415.1322.270.0893695.87

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 2 trading days. Profit factor is 2.82. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 53.19%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.13%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.09, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
PAGEIND Performance, X=2, Profit Factor:2.82

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019411 Jan 2019 (1.73%), 17 May 2019 (-2.52%), 11 Jun 2019 (1.85%), 16 Aug 2019 (0.63%)
2018412 Feb 2018 (2.11%), 01 Aug 2018 (0.08%), 26 Oct 2018 (-1.29%), 17 Dec 2018 (0.76%)
2017303 Jul 2017 (1.91%), 23 Oct 2017 (4.02%), 18 Dec 2017 (0.5%)
2016302 Mar 2016 (1.16%), 31 May 2016 (3.45%), 02 Dec 2016 (2.92%)
2015403 Feb 2015 (-1.64%), 06 Aug 2015 (0.5%), 24 Sep 2015 (-2.1%), 26 Nov 2015 (-0.22%)
2014509 Jan 2014 (-0.51%), 28 Feb 2014 (7.68%), 30 Apr 2014 (0.35%), 10 Nov 2014 (-1.13%), 04 Dec 2014 (6.33%)
2013430 May 2013 (-1.62%), 03 Jul 2013 (1.22%), 05 Nov 2013 (-0.33%), 27 Nov 2013 (2.44%)
2012304 Jan 2012 (-1.28%), 29 May 2012 (-2.7%), 02 Jul 2012 (3.78%)
2011410 Mar 2011 (-4.09%), 27 Jun 2011 (9.69%), 20 Jul 2011 (9.27%), 11 Aug 2011 (2.58%)
2010623 Mar 2010 (-0.63%), 03 May 2010 (-0.88%), 21 May 2010 (-0.19%), 13 Jul 2010 (0.72%), 30 Jul 2010 (15.97%), 01 Dec 2010 (-1.26%)
2009305 Jun 2009 (-2.4%), 17 Oct 2009 (-0.6%), 03 Nov 2009 (0.8%)
2008309 Jul 2008 (-0.28%), 31 Jul 2008 (-1.76%), 26 Aug 2008 (-0.29%)
2007105 Dec 2007 (-1.52%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1210639847252253.196596.9331948.91-2660.22-8187.942.482.820.092263.79
atrtrail24.5660659.9355193634.5513187.9422819.73-5275.31-12004.52.51.320.0331102.91
atrnil27.1941835.5154213338.8914386.4823332.11-7887.29-17196.081.821.160.02774.73
atrnil310.7135194.7751153629.4121106.1534998.17-7816.59-17196.082.71.130.014690.09
atrtrail35.48-32871.0852163630.7710407.3827104-5538.59-12004.51.880.84-0.02-632.14
atrtrail-15.98-59586.82501535308863.5523022.31-5501.14-12004.51.610.69-0.043-1191.74

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.82. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 53.19%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.13%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.09, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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