Study: Buy PEL when above 200 SMA and RSI is oversold

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy PEL when above 200 SMA and RSI is oversold" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy PEL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
184025.421310376.928786.2419096.08-1278.98-2961.246.8722.90.26463.49
2123863131301009527.9627540.5400infinf0.249527.96
31571771313010012090.5529950.9900infinf0.2512090.55
41606191312192.3113417.5733797.14-391.57-391.5734.27411.190.2312355.33
51374011310376.9214328.9231098.13-1962.73-4582.587.324.330.1910569.31
61588961311284.6215856.4436637.56-7762.21-13735.512.0411.240.212222.8
71540791311284.6216703.138787.06-14827.55-28474.411.136.20.1511852.23
81352571310376.9216749.5435429.49-10746.3-25170.551.565.20.1410404.35
91331541310376.9216486.2833221.38-10569.74-25972.041.565.20.1410242.59
101071421311284.6212919.9228991.55-17488.79-23995.840.744.060.128241.66

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 2 trading days. Profit factor is inf. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 100%, which is excellent. Average return per trade is 4.76%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
PEL Performance, X=2, Profit Factor:inf

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017122 Aug 2017 (3.78%)
2016203 Nov 2016 (1.83%), 18 Nov 2016 (4.27%)
2015128 Jul 2015 (1.43%)
2014115 Jul 2014 (2.14%)
2013102 May 2013 (1.63%)
2012218 May 2012 (0.58%), 03 Sep 2012 (3.47%)
2010128 Jan 2010 (11.7%)
2004117 May 2004 (8.67%)
2000115 Feb 2000 (13.77%)
1998228 Jan 1998 (2.33%), 08 Jun 1998 (6.34%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-12123863131301009527.9627540.5400infinf0.249527.96
atrnil313.572477741410471.4327629.5940977.39-7130.49-10333.113.879.690.2117698.14
atrnil24.931760031411378.5717977.1827318.26-7248.69-10333.112.489.090.2312571.64
atrtrail24.141367581410471.4315579.8527318.26-4760.02-10333.113.278.180.179768.46
atrtrail35.51357441410471.4315478.4536402.43-4760.02-10333.113.258.130.159696.03
atrtrail-16.931089881410471.4312802.7633401.05-4760.02-10333.112.696.720.147784.83

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is inf. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 100%, which is excellent. Average return per trade is 4.76%, which is very good.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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