Study: Buy PIDILITIND when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy PIDILITIND when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy PIDILITIND at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-119691156718545.514472.0318801.6-5143.59-1786440.870.73-0.01-767.25
2-241421156748247.445374.4929086.44-7794.31-1773760.690.62-0.019-1547.57
3-173386156718545.516415.5437607.54-7398.7-1754600.870.72-0.013-1111.45
4-141160156777949.366695.3734330.19-8312.71-1748800.810.79-0.011-904.87
5-105171156827452.567458.3832145.3-9685.92-1752850.770.85-0.0076-674.17
6-32889.02156847253.858876.4140139.01-10812.6-1759870.820.96-0.0023-210.83
780822.26156797750.6410824.6741458.42-10056.19-1769311.081.10.0054518.09
8212110156827452.5612369.459532.71-10840.28-1768231.141.260.0131359.68
9235037156857154.4912670.5249719.63-11858.54-1774571.071.280.0141506.65
10298998156867055.1313435.2861087.42-12234.8-1782121.11.350.0181916.65
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 2 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil37.343516021756011534.2918479.7832255.75-6584.22-14424.872.811.460.0332009.15
atrnil25.392133381897711240.7412330.6221503.83-6572.5-14424.871.881.290.0241128.77
atrtrail-15.811623891766311335.811894.548022.25-5194.38-13443.372.291.280.018922.66
atrtrail23.971242301947412038.1410411.6121503.83-5385.25-13443.371.931.190.016640.36
atrtrail34.661155941836511835.5211236.6732255.75-5210.08-13443.372.161.190.014631.66

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.46. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 34.29%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.033, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
PIDILITIND Performance, Profit Factor:1.46

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019615 Jan 2019 (-2.57%), 07 Feb 2019 (-2.67%), 27 Feb 2019 (-2.92%), 21 May 2019 (8.31%), 17 Jul 2019 (-2.0%), 23 Sep 2019 (-2.62%)
2018614 Feb 2018 (-2.52%), 13 Mar 2018 (6.36%), 28 May 2018 (-2.77%), 04 Jul 2018 (-2.59%), 24 Jul 2018 (7.3%), 03 Sep 2018 (-2.23%)
2017815 Mar 2017 (-2.03%), 05 Apr 2017 (-1.83%), 04 May 2017 (4.93%), 01 Jun 2017 (7.22%), 08 Aug 2017 (-2.03%), 16 Aug 2017 (-2.23%), 09 Nov 2017 (6.92%), 08 Dec 2017 (-2.46%)
2016627 Jan 2016 (6.89%), 11 Apr 2016 (-2.44%), 13 May 2016 (6.62%), 28 Jul 2016 (-1.92%), 06 Sep 2016 (-2.06%), 04 Oct 2016 (-2.56%)
2015915 Jan 2015 (-3.55%), 16 Feb 2015 (-3.08%), 03 Mar 2015 (-3.05%), 16 Mar 2015 (-3.39%), 11 May 2015 (-3.05%), 19 Jun 2015 (-2.86%), 30 Jul 2015 (7.55%), 11 Sep 2015 (-3.18%), 30 Sep 2015 (-2.67%)
2014812 Feb 2014 (-2.33%), 19 Feb 2014 (7.26%), 20 May 2014 (-3.41%), 19 Jun 2014 (10.21%), 25 Aug 2014 (-2.65%), 22 Oct 2014 (-2.44%), 17 Nov 2014 (-2.43%), 23 Dec 2014 (11.8%)
2013931 Jan 2013 (8.54%), 01 Feb 2013 (-3.38%), 19 Mar 2013 (-3.48%), 02 Apr 2013 (-3.74%), 07 May 2013 (7.94%), 28 May 2013 (-2.88%), 11 Jul 2013 (7.51%), 30 Oct 2013 (8.94%), 29 Nov 2013 (-3.06%)
2012807 Feb 2012 (9.34%), 27 Mar 2012 (7.71%), 19 Apr 2012 (-3.42%), 07 Jun 2012 (-3.58%), 27 Jun 2012 (-3.09%), 25 Jul 2012 (10.0%), 08 Nov 2012 (-3.25%), 31 Dec 2012 (8.24%)
2011703 Jan 2011 (-3.41%), 14 Feb 2011 (12.66%), 02 Jun 2011 (-3.22%), 27 Jun 2011 (11.37%), 19 Jul 2011 (-3.08%), 05 Sep 2011 (-3.28%), 31 Oct 2011 (-2.74%)
2010906 Jan 2010 (-3.7%), 07 Jan 2010 (-4.27%), 18 Feb 2010 (10.72%), 23 Apr 2010 (-3.3%), 22 Jul 2010 (10.66%), 02 Sep 2010 (9.56%), 27 Sep 2010 (-3.01%), 04 Nov 2010 (-3.82%), 30 Nov 2010 (-3.61%)
2009407 May 2009 (14.17%), 20 Jul 2009 (16.13%), 27 Aug 2009 (14.7%), 12 Nov 2009 (11.79%)
2008328 Jan 2008 (-7.21%), 21 May 2008 (-4.74%), 16 Jun 2008 (-3.94%)
20071112 Jan 2007 (-3.98%), 09 Mar 2007 (-4.53%), 21 Mar 2007 (-4.04%), 15 May 2007 (12.37%), 05 Jul 2007 (9.63%), 27 Aug 2007 (-4.96%), 13 Sep 2007 (-4.24%), 21 Sep 2007 (-4.12%), 16 Oct 2007 (-4.24%), 17 Oct 2007 (15.15%), 31 Dec 2007 (-5.21%)
2006710 Feb 2006 (12.28%), 13 Apr 2006 (-3.96%), 26 Sep 2006 (9.61%), 21 Oct 2006 (-3.93%), 15 Nov 2006 (-3.13%), 24 Nov 2006 (11.79%), 27 Nov 2006 (-4.25%)
2005631 Jan 2005 (-3.45%), 02 Mar 2005 (-3.35%), 10 Jun 2005 (-3.1%), 27 Jun 2005 (-4.01%), 28 Jun 2005 (12.93%), 19 Sep 2005 (-4.0%)
2004713 Feb 2004 (-4.41%), 16 Feb 2004 (-5.33%), 07 May 2004 (-3.38%), 10 May 2004 (-3.56%), 26 Jul 2004 (-2.75%), 24 Aug 2004 (6.91%), 09 Nov 2004 (9.26%)
2003807 May 2003 (7.51%), 20 Jun 2003 (7.67%), 08 Jul 2003 (-2.57%), 04 Aug 2003 (6.53%), 05 Aug 2003 (8.37%), 09 Sep 2003 (-3.12%), 10 Sep 2003 (-3.28%), 09 Oct 2003 (-2.97%)
20021024 Jan 2002 (-3.41%), 19 Mar 2002 (-4.92%), 09 Apr 2002 (11.64%), 10 Apr 2002 (-4.24%), 13 May 2002 (-3.68%), 14 May 2002 (-4.38%), 05 Jun 2002 (11.89%), 07 Aug 2002 (-3.71%), 29 Oct 2002 (-2.75%), 30 Dec 2002 (7.85%)
2001808 Jan 2001 (-4.13%), 07 Feb 2001 (-3.67%), 01 Mar 2001 (-4.12%), 16 Aug 2001 (7.92%), 04 Oct 2001 (-2.89%), 10 Oct 2001 (-3.01%), 11 Oct 2001 (-3.14%), 06 Nov 2001 (8.62%)
2000203 Jan 2000 (-3.55%), 29 May 2000 (-3.75%)
1999808 Jan 1999 (9.2%), 09 Feb 1999 (-4.56%), 15 Mar 1999 (10.52%), 20 May 1999 (-4.85%), 08 Jun 1999 (12.05%), 17 Aug 1999 (9.68%), 29 Sep 1999 (-3.38%), 08 Oct 1999 (-3.35%)
1998520 Jan 1998 (-2.29%), 26 Feb 1998 (5.99%), 09 Apr 1998 (-2.93%), 24 Nov 1998 (9.61%), 21 Dec 1998 (-2.72%)
1997811 Feb 1997 (-2.75%), 17 Feb 1997 (-2.62%), 01 Mar 1997 (8.16%), 09 Jul 1997 (-3.44%), 16 Sep 1997 (-3.25%), 26 Nov 1997 (6.68%), 27 Nov 1997 (-2.4%), 18 Dec 1997 (6.9%)
1996812 Feb 1996 (4.75%), 02 Apr 1996 (6.63%), 08 May 1996 (-2.18%), 09 May 1996 (-2.32%), 06 Jun 1996 (6.17%), 07 Jun 1996 (-2.52%), 22 Jul 1996 (-2.9%), 11 Dec 1996 (8.75%)
1995422 May 1995 (-3.31%), 29 Sep 1995 (-1.88%), 10 Oct 1995 (-2.0%), 01 Dec 1995 (-3.96%)



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