Study: Buy RAMCOCEM when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy RAMCOCEM when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy RAMCOCEM at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
11395251941019352.064291.3222765.43-3160.2-10364.031.361.470.029719.2
24172431941108456.77018.3837626.11-4223.56-13702.531.662.180.0582150.74
33803051941039153.098356.4156630.16-5279.18-22183.541.581.790.0421960.34
4432729194999551.039852.2450419.73-5712.03-23885.481.721.80.0432230.56
54436211941049053.6110147.4134851.18-6796.77-24459.191.491.730.0432286.71
64421121941058954.1210687.9335281.16-7641.8-27458.91.41.650.042278.93
75461481941108456.711915.0538390.09-9101.28-32708.391.311.710.0432815.2
86473511941049053.6113982.0850559.65-8964.28-34516.311.561.80.0463336.86
96502981941068854.6413738.2952816.34-9158.65-39857.571.51.810.0453352.05
106629241941128257.7313896.5658053.39-10896.23-38130.951.281.740.0423417.14
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
RAMCOCEM Performance, X=2, Profit Factor:2.18

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019606 Feb 2019 (0.98%), 04 Apr 2019 (1.12%), 22 May 2019 (6.2%), 09 Aug 2019 (-2.04%), 27 Aug 2019 (-2.31%), 12 Sep 2019 (1.62%)
2018827 Feb 2018 (-0.99%), 03 Apr 2018 (5.64%), 29 Jun 2018 (0.23%), 24 Jul 2018 (4.67%), 20 Aug 2018 (0.42%), 26 Sep 2018 (-1.71%), 30 Oct 2018 (-0.4%), 13 Dec 2018 (3.49%)
20171022 Mar 2017 (-0.88%), 21 Apr 2017 (4.29%), 09 May 2017 (2.25%), 01 Jun 2017 (-1.21%), 05 Jul 2017 (-0.55%), 02 Aug 2017 (-1.51%), 17 Aug 2017 (-4.64%), 24 Oct 2017 (2.58%), 17 Nov 2017 (-2.11%), 13 Dec 2017 (0.79%)
20161028 Jan 2016 (-1.97%), 03 Mar 2016 (-2.11%), 07 Apr 2016 (3.11%), 03 May 2016 (1.81%), 07 Jun 2016 (0.51%), 28 Jun 2016 (-2.73%), 19 Aug 2016 (-2.64%), 04 Oct 2016 (-1.98%), 28 Nov 2016 (4.82%), 29 Dec 2016 (3.51%)
2015915 Jan 2015 (-0.18%), 24 Feb 2015 (-3.45%), 01 Apr 2015 (1.85%), 04 May 2015 (-6.85%), 20 May 2015 (3.06%), 19 Jun 2015 (6.2%), 14 Jul 2015 (-0.74%), 10 Sep 2015 (-0.06%), 30 Dec 2015 (3.52%)
2014810 Feb 2014 (-3.81%), 26 Mar 2014 (5.59%), 15 Apr 2014 (2.68%), 13 May 2014 (-1.97%), 03 Jun 2014 (4.81%), 12 Aug 2014 (1.29%), 23 Oct 2014 (4.36%), 24 Dec 2014 (3.72%)
20131101 Feb 2013 (-3.53%), 15 Feb 2013 (0.7%), 11 Mar 2013 (1.71%), 26 Apr 2013 (3.09%), 22 May 2013 (-1.31%), 12 Jun 2013 (-0.26%), 11 Jul 2013 (-2.48%), 12 Aug 2013 (-1.93%), 29 Aug 2013 (9.62%), 07 Nov 2013 (-3.08%), 29 Nov 2013 (3.82%)
2012704 Jan 2012 (-3.29%), 20 Mar 2012 (-0.3%), 05 Jun 2012 (4.73%), 29 Jun 2012 (-2.5%), 31 Jul 2012 (8.14%), 26 Oct 2012 (4.27%), 12 Dec 2012 (1.58%)
2011804 Feb 2011 (-3.77%), 17 Mar 2011 (3.13%), 26 May 2011 (-2.59%), 13 Jun 2011 (0.79%), 01 Jul 2011 (3.05%), 02 Sep 2011 (3.72%), 28 Oct 2011 (-1.05%), 05 Dec 2011 (-2.4%)
2010905 Jan 2010 (-1.18%), 15 Feb 2010 (3.08%), 02 Mar 2010 (1.9%), 06 Apr 2010 (0.12%), 01 Jun 2010 (1.27%), 10 Aug 2010 (-1.12%), 07 Sep 2010 (-5.03%), 01 Nov 2010 (5.87%), 14 Dec 2010 (1.64%)
2009606 Feb 2009 (2.24%), 16 Mar 2009 (6.97%), 06 May 2009 (4.72%), 17 Jul 2009 (11.35%), 28 Aug 2009 (-3.31%), 16 Nov 2009 (0.48%)
2008728 Jan 2008 (-0.01%), 15 Feb 2008 (-1.28%), 12 Mar 2008 (-3.84%), 28 Mar 2008 (-2.62%), 12 Jun 2008 (1.09%), 24 Jul 2008 (0.56%), 10 Sep 2008 (0.77%)
2007616 Mar 2007 (4.15%), 19 Jun 2007 (3.78%), 28 Aug 2007 (2.91%), 31 Oct 2007 (-5.59%), 16 Nov 2007 (-2.82%), 30 Nov 2007 (-1.53%)
2006816 Jan 2006 (-4.15%), 07 Feb 2006 (3.1%), 02 Mar 2006 (-0.24%), 03 Apr 2006 (13.58%), 20 Jun 2006 (2.09%), 08 Sep 2006 (-1.6%), 01 Nov 2006 (1.08%), 14 Dec 2006 (1.98%)
20051004 Feb 2005 (9.39%), 07 Mar 2005 (-1.92%), 07 Apr 2005 (-3.81%), 10 May 2005 (1.74%), 06 Jun 2005 (0.98%), 06 Jul 2005 (0.32%), 09 Aug 2005 (4.67%), 30 Aug 2005 (2.85%), 10 Oct 2005 (-0.87%), 11 Nov 2005 (4.65%)
2004713 Jan 2004 (0.0%), 13 Feb 2004 (4.91%), 05 Mar 2004 (-2.86%), 01 Apr 2004 (-0.27%), 11 Jun 2004 (-0.9%), 08 Oct 2004 (-0.43%), 03 Dec 2004 (5.64%)
2003802 Jan 2003 (-1.76%), 04 Feb 2003 (-2.64%), 08 Apr 2003 (-3.75%), 18 Jun 2003 (-2.19%), 04 Aug 2003 (0.81%), 25 Sep 2003 (6.24%), 03 Nov 2003 (4.97%), 16 Dec 2003 (5.84%)
2002922 Jan 2002 (1.3%), 12 Mar 2002 (-0.12%), 11 Apr 2002 (-3.33%), 26 Apr 2002 (0.58%), 03 Jun 2002 (-3.7%), 12 Aug 2002 (-1.3%), 17 Sep 2002 (0.52%), 17 Oct 2002 (1.2%), 12 Nov 2002 (3.94%)
2001523 Jan 2001 (5.09%), 28 Mar 2001 (-1.75%), 09 Jul 2001 (-2.27%), 05 Oct 2001 (-1.14%), 05 Dec 2001 (2.78%)
2000604 Jan 2000 (0.18%), 25 Feb 2000 (-0.4%), 17 May 2000 (8.12%), 13 Jul 2000 (0.02%), 03 Aug 2000 (0.72%), 23 Oct 2000 (8.16%)
1999916 Feb 1999 (2.65%), 23 Mar 1999 (-0.99%), 04 May 1999 (1.8%), 07 Jun 1999 (1.83%), 09 Jul 1999 (4.4%), 06 Aug 1999 (10.87%), 27 Aug 1999 (2.92%), 10 Sep 1999 (-2.9%), 20 Oct 1999 (-2.54%)
1998913 Feb 1998 (18.81%), 22 Apr 1998 (-2.77%), 20 May 1998 (-5.89%), 30 Jun 1998 (-1.81%), 27 Aug 1998 (-5.24%), 23 Sep 1998 (2.44%), 05 Nov 1998 (2.33%), 19 Nov 1998 (0.34%), 14 Dec 1998 (-4.11%)
1997717 Feb 1997 (-0.39%), 01 Mar 1997 (7.93%), 23 Apr 1997 (-2.23%), 23 May 1997 (0.0%), 01 Aug 1997 (6.36%), 01 Oct 1997 (-1.14%), 18 Dec 1997 (1.94%)
1996612 Feb 1996 (9.3%), 09 Apr 1996 (0.38%), 06 Jun 1996 (0.16%), 16 Jul 1996 (-2.04%), 23 Sep 1996 (1.01%), 19 Dec 1996 (2.72%)
1995523 May 1995 (1.68%), 25 Jul 1995 (0.57%), 11 Sep 1995 (0.28%), 11 Oct 1995 (-0.27%), 30 Nov 1995 (11.5%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil37.726773462177813935.9422448.9249809.48-7724.24-18213.042.911.630.0423121.41
atrtrail24.114340442369813841.5312527.8229535.87-5751.32-16711.772.181.550.0371839.17
atrnil25.4553694623610313343.6415124.4833206.32-7675.75-18213.041.971.530.0392275.2
atrtrail35.03402841225901354013216.8339357.84-5827.21-16711.772.271.510.0321790.41
atrtrail-15.953075702228913340.0912180.5945344.32-5838.36-16711.772.091.40.0251385.45

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.63. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 35.94%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.56%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.042, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
RAMCOCEM Performance, Profit Factor:1.63

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019706 Feb 2019 (9.97%), 04 Apr 2019 (-2.56%), 22 May 2019 (9.6%), 09 Aug 2019 (-3.11%), 13 Aug 2019 (-3.3%), 26 Aug 2019 (-3.45%), 11 Sep 2019 (-3.04%)
2018827 Feb 2018 (-3.54%), 03 Apr 2018 (8.22%), 29 Jun 2018 (-3.05%), 24 Jul 2018 (-3.79%), 20 Aug 2018 (-3.62%), 26 Sep 2018 (-3.33%), 30 Oct 2018 (-3.99%), 13 Dec 2018 (-3.23%)
20171122 Mar 2017 (8.87%), 10 May 2017 (-2.42%), 01 Jun 2017 (-3.55%), 05 Jul 2017 (-3.12%), 02 Aug 2017 (-2.77%), 16 Aug 2017 (-2.93%), 29 Aug 2017 (8.11%), 24 Oct 2017 (-2.54%), 17 Nov 2017 (-2.76%), 24 Nov 2017 (-2.73%), 13 Dec 2017 (7.49%)
20161028 Jan 2016 (-3.63%), 03 Mar 2016 (10.56%), 07 Apr 2016 (10.93%), 03 May 2016 (11.4%), 07 Jun 2016 (10.35%), 11 Jul 2016 (-3.02%), 19 Aug 2016 (-2.91%), 04 Oct 2016 (-3.42%), 28 Nov 2016 (-5.31%), 29 Dec 2016 (13.16%)
2015915 Jan 2015 (-4.48%), 24 Feb 2015 (-4.4%), 01 Apr 2015 (-4.41%), 04 May 2015 (-3.6%), 20 May 2015 (10.6%), 19 Jun 2015 (-3.89%), 14 Jul 2015 (-3.63%), 10 Sep 2015 (13.58%), 30 Dec 2015 (-2.65%)
2014910 Feb 2014 (-3.48%), 11 Feb 2014 (10.91%), 26 Mar 2014 (11.47%), 15 Apr 2014 (-3.85%), 13 May 2014 (-4.36%), 03 Jun 2014 (-5.07%), 12 Aug 2014 (13.31%), 23 Oct 2014 (10.61%), 24 Dec 2014 (-3.96%)
20131101 Feb 2013 (-3.09%), 14 Feb 2013 (8.93%), 12 Mar 2013 (-3.06%), 26 Apr 2013 (-3.18%), 12 Jun 2013 (-3.76%), 11 Jul 2013 (-4.38%), 12 Aug 2013 (-5.8%), 13 Aug 2013 (-6.1%), 29 Aug 2013 (21.12%), 07 Nov 2013 (-3.89%), 29 Nov 2013 (10.97%)
2012804 Jan 2012 (-4.86%), 11 Jan 2012 (13.56%), 20 Mar 2012 (-4.39%), 05 Jun 2012 (11.71%), 29 Jun 2012 (-4.61%), 31 Jul 2012 (9.37%), 26 Oct 2012 (10.9%), 12 Dec 2012 (9.87%)
20111004 Feb 2011 (-3.71%), 11 Feb 2011 (-4.43%), 17 Mar 2011 (11.13%), 26 May 2011 (-4.04%), 13 Jun 2011 (-3.31%), 01 Jul 2011 (10.0%), 02 Sep 2011 (11.9%), 28 Oct 2011 (-3.13%), 31 Oct 2011 (11.23%), 05 Dec 2011 (-4.56%)
20101005 Jan 2010 (8.93%), 15 Feb 2010 (-5.71%), 02 Mar 2010 (14.61%), 01 Jun 2010 (-4.63%), 10 Aug 2010 (-2.82%), 19 Aug 2010 (8.78%), 07 Sep 2010 (-3.65%), 08 Sep 2010 (-3.98%), 01 Nov 2010 (11.65%), 14 Dec 2010 (-4.12%)
2009706 Feb 2009 (-5.82%), 16 Mar 2009 (13.89%), 06 May 2009 (18.24%), 17 Jul 2009 (-6.08%), 28 Aug 2009 (-4.97%), 04 Sep 2009 (14.28%), 16 Nov 2009 (12.35%)
2008728 Jan 2008 (-9.11%), 15 Feb 2008 (-7.66%), 12 Mar 2008 (-6.28%), 28 Mar 2008 (-7.38%), 12 Jun 2008 (14.41%), 24 Jul 2008 (-5.24%), 10 Sep 2008 (-3.49%)
2007716 Mar 2007 (-5.69%), 19 Jun 2007 (8.76%), 28 Aug 2007 (10.88%), 31 Oct 2007 (-5.39%), 01 Nov 2007 (-6.13%), 16 Nov 2007 (-5.54%), 29 Nov 2007 (-5.68%)
2006916 Jan 2006 (-3.79%), 07 Feb 2006 (11.09%), 02 Mar 2006 (-4.44%), 03 Apr 2006 (15.67%), 20 Jun 2006 (24.9%), 08 Sep 2006 (-3.23%), 11 Sep 2006 (10.36%), 01 Nov 2006 (-2.99%), 14 Dec 2006 (10.39%)
20051004 Feb 2005 (14.63%), 07 Mar 2005 (-4.77%), 07 Apr 2005 (-4.17%), 08 Apr 2005 (-4.43%), 10 May 2005 (-3.48%), 06 Jun 2005 (8.5%), 09 Aug 2005 (11.83%), 30 Aug 2005 (12.64%), 10 Oct 2005 (-3.76%), 11 Nov 2005 (12.72%)
2004713 Jan 2004 (-5.13%), 13 Feb 2004 (15.86%), 05 Mar 2004 (-4.36%), 01 Apr 2004 (-4.29%), 11 Jun 2004 (-6.77%), 08 Oct 2004 (-3.73%), 03 Dec 2004 (10.71%)
20031002 Jan 2003 (-2.67%), 04 Feb 2003 (-2.6%), 08 Apr 2003 (-3.95%), 17 Apr 2003 (10.71%), 18 Jun 2003 (-3.83%), 27 Jun 2003 (-3.48%), 04 Aug 2003 (-3.63%), 25 Sep 2003 (9.29%), 03 Nov 2003 (9.96%), 16 Dec 2003 (10.73%)
20021022 Jan 2002 (-3.12%), 12 Mar 2002 (-3.11%), 13 Mar 2002 (-3.47%), 11 Apr 2002 (-2.97%), 26 Apr 2002 (-2.2%), 03 Jun 2002 (-3.0%), 12 Aug 2002 (-2.84%), 17 Sep 2002 (-2.53%), 17 Oct 2002 (-2.24%), 12 Nov 2002 (-2.61%)
2001623 Jan 2001 (7.88%), 28 Mar 2001 (-6.14%), 09 Apr 2001 (-5.65%), 09 Jul 2001 (-3.4%), 05 Oct 2001 (12.22%), 05 Dec 2001 (-2.86%)
2000704 Jan 2000 (-3.9%), 25 Feb 2000 (-7.74%), 17 May 2000 (14.36%), 13 Jul 2000 (-4.08%), 03 Aug 2000 (12.32%), 23 Oct 2000 (-3.33%), 24 Oct 2000 (11.1%)
1999916 Feb 1999 (-4.03%), 23 Mar 1999 (-3.76%), 04 May 1999 (13.61%), 07 Jun 1999 (9.88%), 09 Jul 1999 (6.96%), 06 Aug 1999 (11.83%), 27 Aug 1999 (12.09%), 09 Sep 1999 (-3.53%), 20 Oct 1999 (-3.83%)
19981313 Feb 1998 (17.18%), 22 Apr 1998 (-4.52%), 05 May 1998 (-4.9%), 20 May 1998 (-5.41%), 30 Jun 1998 (19.68%), 27 Aug 1998 (-3.26%), 28 Aug 1998 (-3.67%), 23 Sep 1998 (-2.77%), 05 Nov 1998 (-3.12%), 19 Nov 1998 (-2.64%), 14 Dec 1998 (-2.46%), 15 Dec 1998 (-2.53%), 23 Dec 1998 (7.61%)
1997917 Feb 1997 (-2.37%), 01 Mar 1997 (6.54%), 23 Apr 1997 (-2.67%), 23 May 1997 (-3.0%), 26 May 1997 (-3.13%), 01 Aug 1997 (6.09%), 01 Oct 1997 (-1.64%), 16 Oct 1997 (-1.63%), 18 Dec 1997 (-5.44%)
1996612 Feb 1996 (8.26%), 09 Apr 1996 (6.64%), 06 Jun 1996 (-2.36%), 16 Jul 1996 (-2.87%), 23 Sep 1996 (-2.88%), 19 Dec 1996 (8.86%)
1995723 May 1995 (6.35%), 25 Jul 1995 (4.09%), 26 Jul 1995 (-1.61%), 11 Sep 1995 (-1.74%), 11 Oct 1995 (-1.86%), 30 Nov 1995 (7.33%), 01 Dec 1995 (8.01%)



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